The opportunity to cover this year's presidential election was a once-in-a-lifetime event for overseas journalists. The drama continued non-stop as the miracle that is Taiwan's democracy continued to unfold before the world's watchful eye.
President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) defeated Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) by a margin of only 0.22 percent, a victory that has stirred a huge controversy.
Before the election, many predicted that the blue camp would win by a margin of at least 3 percent to claim the Presidential Office.
Contrary to their predictions, the Lien-Soong ticket lost by nearly 30,000 votes out of a turnout of some 13 million, a slim margin of victory put down to the assassination attempt on Chen which occurred the day before polling day.
The shooting obviously provoked a surge in sympathy for Chen. The idea that a sympathy vote helped Chen win the contest swamped the blue camp and triggered bitter resentment.
The blue camp, from the highest levels to the grass-roots, staged a street demonstration
in Taipei, questioned the circumstances of the shooting and filed a lawsuit to annul the results of the election.
However, the blue camp's complaints do not get to the heart of the matter.
The combined vote for the separate Lien and Soong tickets in the 2000 election was 2.6 million more than that of Chen and Lu, representing a nominal 20-percent lead for Lien and Soong at the outset of the 2004 election campaign.
Chen therefore had to win at least 1 million more votes than before if he was to secure re-election. In the end, this year's election saw Chen's support increase by 1.5 million votes, allowing him to win by the barest of majorities.
Chen's narrow victory is therefore based on this foundation of 1,500,000 votes. This massive jump is the real story of the election.
While the votes for the green camp increased dramatically, the blue camp failed to fulfill its "one plus one equals two" axiom, and its vote dropped by more than 1 million, suggesting that the platform of "one country on either side" of the Taiwan Strait which the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has promoted has been endorsed by a majority of Taiwanese.
Together with the 228 Hand-in-Hand Rally and an emphatic "no" to reunification with China, the Taiwanese have displayed a strong desire for self-determination. Meanwhile, Lien and Soong still cling to an antiquated notion of "one China," ignoring mainstream opinion.
As KMT Legislator Apollo Chen (陳學聖) said at a post-election press conference in Hong Kong, "the pan-blues lost the election because of their unclear direction. We didn't know what we were fighting for and did not address basic problems."
With a margin of under 30,000 votes, the election could have gone either way. It does seem, however, that Lien and Soong got themselves into a real tangle and missed their chance to reach their goal.
Public opinion in Taipei, both pro-green and pro-blue, has shown there is widespread discontent with independent Legislator Sisy Chen (陳文茜), who frivolously and arrogantly insinuated that the shooting of Chen and Lu was a trick to win sympathy without producing any hard evidence to back her claims.
Her baseless allegation provoked the resentment of undecided voters and may have drawn support to Chen Shui-bian's side.
Watching the antics of Sisy Chen and talk-show host Jaw Shaw-kong (
At the same time, I also predicted that they would soon eat from their own bitter fruit.
In response to Sisy Chen's accusations, police and criminal investigators launched an immediate investigation, refuting her points one by one.
In a democratic society governed by law, it is the right of people to question the timing and method of the shooting and the favorable effect it might have had on Chen Shui-bian's campaign. Nevertheless, before investigations are completed, politicians who capitalize on and spread such suspicions can only make events turn against them.
Even if the shooting had not occurred, the mainstream of Taiwanese opinion would have continued to mature in the direction of self-determination. It is an irresistible force, no matter who is in power.
I once told a TV audience that Taiwan's democratic progress and success inspire and invigorate people fighting for democracy in China and Hong Kong. A second DPP term heightens the challenge to China's rigid and backward Taiwan policy.
If Beijing cannot face reality or take a close look at what is happening in Taiwan, a breakthrough in cross-strait relations is unlikely.
Jin Zhong is the editor-in-chief of the Hong Kong-based Open Magazine.
Translated by Wang Hsiao-wen
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