The shooting of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) marked a watershed in the election. Chen was the primary player in the election -- he had not only to fight a pan-blue ticket, but also had to pay a considerable political cost for promoting the referendum. There-fore, the imprimatur of the Chen Shui-bian era was already having an effect when Chinese National-ist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) vowed to file an electoral lawsuit. The Lien-Soong era is facing an end even before it begins.
The election results have deepened this effect. Rather than wasting their efforts on a dispute over electoral defeat, the pan-blues must explore anew the direction of public opinion, give up election manipulation and face up to the transition in mainstream public opinion -- because it is a colossal process.
Compared to the unification-independence confrontation in the 2000 election, this election is about vying for leadership of the pro-nativization factions. This is because public opinion is moving toward a new national identity. The future pan-blue leadership must try to grasp this pulse. Otherwise, even a larger basic support base will not be able to bring election victory.
The pan-blue defeat is a perfect opportunity to give up the "big blue, small green" pretension. The basic support base theory is an excuse for laziness. It has been viewed as the glue keeping Lien and Soong together, as well as a feel-good narcotic in the campaign process. These, combined with the errors in opinion poll figures and repeated guarantees from polling experts, have caused the pan-blue policy vision to revolve around the basic support base. It is all about stabilizing and protecting what one has, completely blind to changes in the world affairs and unwilling to opening up new horizons.
The election merely revealed the new political landscape, in which the blues and the greens are neck and neck. This is the biggest change during Chen's four years in power. The pan-green camp's relative advantage in the south has evolved into an absolute advantage. Its weak position in central Taiwan has now changed to an equal split.
These shifts represent the permanent collapse of the traditional KMT-led structure. They also imply the rise of a new form of political competition. Even though the election this time was determined by a difference so small that it was as random as the toss of a coin, the structural change it will give rise to will be far-reaching.
However, the pan-green camp cannot evade the political consequences of the referendum's failure. Despite Chen's re-election, the implementation of referendum democracy has suffered a major blow. Internally, it must review the referendum legislation and the design of the referendum system. It should build a feasible and effective referendum system by seeking a majority in the year-end legislative election.
Chen's win does not mean a victory for the referendum. The failed referendum cannot provide persuasive turnout figures to refute international opprobrium of Taiwan for holding the referendum. Much less can it help Taiwan resist international interference in future referendums. This is the beginning of a chain of controversies, not the end.
The DPP must face up to the referendum's failure, which signifies a president who has won a majority but cannot shape a majority consensus. This is definitely a predicament. The lawsuit to invalidate the election is only the beginning. The Chen government must not overlook the voice of the other half of the public. There is much more room to build consensus in a democratic system. Referendum democracy should be a good mechanism for building consensus.
Hsu Yung-ming is an assistant research fellow at the Sun Yat-sen Institute for Social Sciences and Philosophy, Academia Sinica.
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