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Referendum results send a diluted message
The first-ever referendum in Taiwan's history concluded late last night with rather less drama than the presidential election -- and ended in a surprising disappointment. `Taipei Times' staff reporter Stephanie Wen talked to Lo Chih-cheng, executive director of the Institute for National Policy Research, on the significance and implications of the referendum from an international perspective
Sunday, Mar 21, 2004, Page 23
Taipei Times: The first-ever referendum in Taiwan failed to pass, with only 45.17 and 45.12 percent of the electorate voting for each question, rendering the controversial ballot invalid. What message do you think this sends to the international community?
Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政): It shows that the pan-blue camp's boycott of the referendum was successful. A lot of people in Taiwan still make their decisions based on what is advocated by their preferred political party.
However a significant number of people did cast their votes in the referendum, and combined with President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) winning his re-election bid, the significance of the referendum voting should not be overlooked either.
Chen's re-election has given him a general mandate to carry out his cross-strait policies. The referendum would have given him a more specific mandate, had it been valid.
If the referendum had been valid, this would have been a positive and clear message to both the US and China that we have the will and resolve to defend ourselves against China's missile threats. But because not enough people voted in the referendum to make the results valid, the message that the referendum could have sent was weakened.
TT: Both support for and opposition to the referendum within Taiwan has been strong. How do you think the international media perceive the referendum in Taiwan? Do they see it as a necessary step toward democracy or do they see it as electioneering?
Lo: Most international media have interpreted the referendum in Taiwan as electioneering. So even with the referendum failing to pass, the international community and media are happy to downplay this first failure.
The opposition has criticized Chen for linking the referendum to the election. But just because the referendum is motivated by political motives doesn't make it dirty. I think that democratic countries should be able to appreciate the pressure to get re-elected an incumbent is under.
TT: The referendum was preceded by an attempt to assassinate the president. How do you think this will affect the international community's view of Taiwan's referendum and election?
Lo: First, both candidates had a responsibility to calm their supporters. Both Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Lien Chan's (連戰) campaign staff and Chen's staff came out publicly to ask their supporters to remain calm and accept the election results.
That was the one thing that both candidates could have done to prevent a possibly bad impression of Taiwan's election.
TT: On the topic of cross-strait relations, do you think this referendum will change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait?
Lo: The term "status quo" is misleading. What is the "status quo" that everyone is referring to? China has been deploying its missiles for the last 10 years. Is that the status quo that we would like to maintain -- the increasing rate at which the number of missiles are targeted at us?
I think the referendum was trying to redress the imbalance in the Strait and was aiming to take the status quo back to when there were no missiles. It also points out that this status quo is unfavorable to Taiwan. It helps to point out the imbalance to the international community. Many countries in the world don't know that Taiwan is being targeted by hundreds of missiles.
The status quo is not the same as stability.
In fact, the status quo of China continually increasing the number of missiles targeted at us is destabilizing.
TT: Do you think the referendum topics address the sovereignty issue, as was suggested in the debates leading up to the referendum?
Lo: I think executing the referendum is itself a manifestation of sovereignty. It didn't need more specific wording to emphasize that we have sovereignty in engaging in talks with China.
TT: Do you think the relationship between the US and Taiwan has been damaged in the last few months?
Lo: The US administration was quite negative regarding Taiwan's referendum in the beginning, but it softened its tone, and its opposition to unilateral changes has been directed not only toward Taiwan but also toward China. But trust will have to be won back now.
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