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Post-poll politicking will make a difference

If the March 20 election goes well, voters will select the next national leader and his teammate. They will also cast historic ballots on whether to reinforce the country's defensive capability in the face of China's military threat and to establish a peaceful framework for cross-strait relations.

More attention, however, should be focused on the post-election political dynamics and their impact to the nation's political development. How would Chinese Nationalist Party Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) work with former adversary turned running mate People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) if they were elected?

Can Lien and Soong build a sound working relationship without pushing the merger of their parties? Will Lien treat Soong as a close partner or an outsider? Should Soong restrain his actions according to the vice president's constitutional role of simply being a "replacement" to the president? Will the KMT and the PFP shoulder the responsibility of any failure of governance? How would Lien and Soong distribute government posts -- based on professionalism or based on personal and party interests?

These are not groundless worries. There are at least three potential dangers embedded in a Lien-Soong government.

First, who would have the final say on policy? This sounds like a stupid question, but since there are clear differences between Lien and Soong on policy, there is an inherent danger of policy disputes for a Lien administration.

For example, Lien has called for cross-strait differences to be put aside and left for the next generation to handle. Soong holds to his notion of "one China" as the "roof" to govern cross-strait interaction. When asked if Lien and Soong would have hard time dealing with the opposition if elected, Soong said he would like to play the role of "chief coordinator" between Lien and the legislature.

The discrepancy over key policies illustrates the second danger -- personalities. Lien has long been portrayed as a stiff and conservative leader who has never exercised strong leadership in the KMT. Soong, however, is a master at political maneuvering. A vice president Soong willing to play a supplementary role to the president is hard to image.

Soong's dominant role in the flaps with the government on key issues has demonstrated his ambition to be more than just a running mate. He clearly wants a powerful position in the post-election political landscape. Can Soong restrain his ambition if Lien becomes president?

Finally, it is due largely to Soong's potential to take the spotlight away from Lien that so many people believe a back-room deal was reached between the KMT and the PFP. The next legislative election is scheduled for the end of this year, and due to the country's unique voting system, it would be a tough job to coordinate the nominations of both parties if they remain separate.

But even if they do merge, there will be problems since most the PFP's legislators were once members of the KMT. Can those "traitors" regain their political influence in the KMT? What would the new Cabinet's composition be in terms of party forces?

The fact is, it is often up to the president to decide just how much power or involvement the vice president should have -- as demonstrated by the interaction between President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮).

Therefore, if the Lien-Soong tickets wins, the nation will enter into another round of political wrestling and inherent instability in the KMT-PFP alliance is to be expected. An ambitious vice president would become a huge liability to the president if a constructive relationship cannot be built. This is the essential question that the voters should ask themselves before casting their ballots.

Liu Kuan-teh is a political commentator based in Taipei.
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