Attitudes about PRC have changed

President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) recent call for a law enabling referendums quickly turned into an international crisis. China, fearing that any such law could be used to move Taiwan toward independence, reacted strongly even before the Referendum Law (公民投票法) was approved by the Legislative Yuan.

Wang Zaixi (王在希), deputy director of China's Taiwan Affairs Office, warned of the use of force if Taiwanese authorities "collude with separatist forces to openly engage in pro-independence activities and challenge the mainland and the `one China' principle."

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (溫家寶) was slightly more civil.

In an interview with a US newspaper, he said that China would "pay any price to safeguard the unity of the motherland."

A few days after Wen's interview, while commenting on recent developments in Taiwan with Wen at his side, US President George W. Bush said that the US opposed "any unilateral decision to change the status quo, and the comments and actions made by the leader of Taiwan indicate that he may be willing to make decisions unilaterally to change the status quo, which we oppose."

Facing an election and preoccupied with Iraq, Bush cannot afford a crisis in East Asia.

Indeed, he needs China's help in persuading recalcitrant North Korea to negotiate on nuclear disarmament. But Bush is not alone in facing political pressure. Taiwan has its own domestic constituencies that need stroking.

With economic growth slowing to a 50-year low during his tenure, Chen is seeking ways to divert public attention by assuming the role of a daring leader ready to defend national sovereignty. Gone is the moderate policy toward China that Chen espoused previously.

In a policy reorientation, he announced last August that there is "one state on each side of the Taiwan Strait." To further differentiate himself from the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), the party that ruled Taiwan for most of the last half century, and its ally, the People's First Party, Chen has made local values, safeguarding sovereignty and the "two state" theory the theme of his presidency.

A new constitution, backed by a national referendum, is part of this drive to reshape national identity and distinguish the new generation of politicians from those who arrived as exiles from China.

Though a referendum serves as an election gimmick, it is nonetheless a normal democratic tool almost everywhere, and Chen's having called a referendum would not have caused the stir that it has if the Taiwanese public did not seem to back it.

Clearly, public opinion in Taiwan regarding relations with China has changed dramatically. In the past, Taiwanese repudiated ideas like referendums and a new constitution, owing to China's sensitivity.

But recent polls show that Taiwanese attitudes toward China have changed markedly, and that more and more people are less concerned about what China thinks.

Few consider China's rulers to be even remotely friendly, and this growing aversion to China provides daring politicians with room to maneuver.

But Taiwan's policy towards China has also undergone a very different kind of overhaul in the last decade or so, with confrontation replaced by a new engagement aimed at exploring economic opportunities in the vast Chinese market.

Taiwan has been a major supplier of foreign capital flowing into China, contributing twice as much as the US and accounting for roughly 20 percent of China's total inflows. Taiwan is also the driving force in China's high-tech industries. Estimates suggest that 70 percent of the hardware made by China's information technology industry is produced by Taiwanese companies. Taiwan has also allowed links to be opened so that the residents of Kinmen and Xiamen can enjoy unrestrained travel across the Strait.

These goodwill gestures have, however, failed to moderate China's belligerent posture. In addition to missile tests, China has been trying to cajole the US into stopping arms sales to Taiwan. The rumored proposal in October 2002 by former Chinese president Jiang Zemin (江澤民), in a meeting with Bush, to withdraw Chinese missiles in exchange for termination of US military sales to Taiwan, is but one example.

This hostility extends to almost every field of endeavor. China blocked Taiwan's entry into the Word Health Organization even though the SARS epidemic inflicted heavy casualties on the nation earlier this year. China also managed to convince three nations to shift loyalty away from Taipei's meager diplomatic corps during Chen's three years in office.

Worse yet, two of the cases were timed to humiliate Chen -- one on the eve of his assumption of the Democratic Progressive Party chairmanship and the other before his stopover in New York while on a state visit to Central America.

So in terms of cross-strait stability, China can be said to be every bit as provocative as Taiwan, and matters may yet spin out of control if leaders on both sides continue their recklessness. While smaller Taiwan should be careful not to provoke its giant neighbor, China must come to terms with the workings of a functioning democracy.

Intimidation and suppression can only breed hostility among ordinary Taiwanese.

Chao Chien-min is a professor of Chinese politics, specializing in cross-strait relations, at the Sun Yat-sen Graduate Institute of Social Sciences and Humanities, National Chengchi University.