A leading commentator for the London Financial Times, Martin Wolf, complains: "We are enjoying two of the most beneficent transformations in human history: a revolution in life expectancy and the liberation of women from the burden of their biology. And how do we respond? We mope about imploding pensions schemes."
But that's economists and economic commentators for you. We practice the gloomy science and we love it. In an attempt to inject a note of optimism, the eminent editor of The Economist magazine, Bill Emmott, recently popularized the phrase "paranoid optimism" to explain his own (qualified) optimism about the future of capitalism and (he hopes) the beneficent influence of the US on the rest of the world.
Emmott takes the phrase from French winemakers who believe they improve their methods each year (optimism) but are paranoid about the way the weather can create havoc with any particular vintage.
One of those highly educated Jordanian commentators on the Middle East recently reminded BBC listeners that "a pessimist is an optimist in possession of the facts."
A classic example of the paranoid optimism and well informed pessimism was provided this week by Paul Craig Roberts, a former US Treasury assistant secretary in one of the Reagan administrations and Charles Schumer, senior senator from New York. In a joint article for The New York Times they explain that the free trade they once believed in needs to be re-examined in the light of the way "any worker whose job does not require daily face-to-face interaction is now in jeopardy of being replaced by a lower-paid, equally skilled worker thousands of miles away."
They point out that the original belief of economists in free trade was based on the assumption that such factors of production as labor and capital could not move easily over borders. Thus each country specialized in what it was good at. Now they fear, echoing fears in England and elsewhere, that the US is experiencing not so much a jobless recovery as a recovery that is creating jobs in China, India and elsewhere -- often by US-owned corporations.
This brings us to another way that economists always find something to complain about: for years there has been disappointment that the aid effort has not been sufficient to allow many developing countries to stand on their own feet. Now that the global "integration" process is proving beneficial to development, we find a catch back home.
Perhaps the most topical example of the way economists always find something to complain about is provided by the dramatic fall in the dollar and the rise of the euro. The press cannot help presenting a "dollar plunge" as a crisis story -- and crises may well follow from the phenomenon if it goes on and on. But meanwhile the chairman of General Motors Rick Wagoner has welcomed the fall, because of the impact on GM's competitiveness with respects to its European and Japanese rivals.
Again, the layperson might think Europeans would welcome the rise in the euro. Didn't the euro look sick for several years, especially in the eyes of those who had hoped it would "look the dollar in the face?"
Well, it did. The problem now is that the recovery in the euro has shown up the weakness of general eurozone economic performance, and the degree to which the zone relied on a low euro to boost its exports and make up for relatively feeble domestic demand.
If US economic policy is dangerously expansionary with its ever increasing trade deficit, eurozone policies -- both on the monetary and fiscal fronts -- are clearly too restrictive. The rise in the euro shows this more and more. A strong euro may sound like good news, but it could be disastrous for Germany and France if they don't radically rethink their economic policies.
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