Print

Mail

wiki links

Kremlin's strategy paid off in elections

By Vyacheslav Nikonov

Tuesday, Dec 16, 2003, Page 9

ILLUSTRATION MOUNTAIN PEOPLE

Long before Russia's Duma election on Dec. 7, one could predict the outcome: victory for the Edinstvo (Unity) party, President Vladimir Putin's main parliamentary ally. What was not predicted was the size of the victory for this so-called "party of power," or the exceedingly poor showing by the Communist Party (KPRF).

In 1999, Unity's main rival was the Fatherland /All Russia bloc (OVR), led by ex-premier Yevgeny Primakov and Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, who at the time were very popular figures. But the government-controlled media subsequently launched fierce attacks against them, targeting Primakov especially, since he was considered a serious rival to Putin and a legitimate presidential contender.

Since then, the situation changed markedly. The OVR first became an ally of the Unity party, and then merged with it into what became known as United Russia, helping it become this year's clear front-runner. So the government-controlled media took aim at another antagonist, the Communist Party, which apparently never expect an attack on this scale.

Disoriented and bewildered, the party withered under the pressure of the media assault, which was mostly carried out on state-run TV channels. The election result showed that the government's strategy pay off handsomely. Indeed, the Communist vote collapsed to a mere 12.7 percent, down from 24 percent in 1999.

But the Communists also have themselves to blame for their electoral debacle. Having won the most votes in two consecutive Duma elections, the party now made a serious strategic blunder, exposing itself to attack by putting a number of major businessmen -- or oligarchs -- on its candidate list. They formed perfect targets.

United Russia, on the other hand, based its campaign on the progress made during Putin's tenure: notable economic growth and slight improvement in people's living standards. The party actively supports Putin, but refrained from appearing in televised debates, possibly because it has no charismatic leaders of its own who can excite the public with sharp polemics. A dull presentation could have adversely affected the party's rating.

The refusal to accept any televised challenge, of course, aroused a lot of criticism in the media. But the election law does not require that every party take part in such events, so United Russia merely shrugged off the criticism.

Most forecasts estimated that United Russia, led by such prominent politicians as Interior Minister Boris Gryzlov, Emergencies Minister Sergei Shoigu, and Luzhkov, could take up to 30 percent of the popular vote. Added to the winners in single-seat constituencies -- half the total -- this would ensure it a sturdy majority of 250 to 270 of the Duma's 450 seats.

In the end, United Russia secured 37 percent of the vote, with the additional seats it gained in the single-seat constituencies assuring it an overwhelming parliamentary majority. This means that the pro-Kremlin bloc probably attained the two-thirds majority needed to change the Constitution, which would allow it to grant Putin a third four-year term, although Putin himself ruled this out last June.

Although the Communist leader, Gennady Zyuganov, accuses the Kremlin of rigging the vote, his party is -- at long last -- beginning to look like a spent force. But the strong showing by Vladimir Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democratic Party, or the LDPR, seems equally surprising. Of course, Zhirinovsky's national-socialist rhetoric has hidden his almost slavish subservience to the Kremlin. Yet his party now seems to have fixed itself on the political landscape. It has a committed electorate of its own, whose sentiments are responsive to Zhirinovsky's populist slogans, and a party apparatus staffed by committed workers.

Russians are not surprised at the poor showing of the so-called reformist forces, the Union of Right-Wing Forces (SPS) and the liberal Yabloko party. The leaders of the two parties -- Boris Nemtsov and Grigory Yavlinsky, respectively, failed at the campaign's start to find common ground. By splitting the "reform" vote, both parties failed to win any seats in the Duma because neither surpassed the 5 percent electoral threshold.

The "reformist" bloc will be replaced by Rodina (Motherland), a new patriotic alliance that was created to take votes away from the Communists, and received 9.1 percent of the vote. Motherland's proclaimed policies, a heady brew of nationalism and socialism, are espoused by seasoned leaders, including the economist Sergei Glazyev, chairman of the Duma foreign affairs committee Dmitry Rogozin, and former Central Bank head Viktor Gerashchenko.

Because United Russia will hold a parliamentary majority, opposition to executive authority should be much weaker than when the Communists formed the largest faction. For the first time since the Soviet collapse, the Kremlin will have firm parliamentary support. For better or for worse, the government now has ample opportunity to enacted its desired reforms, possibly including constitutional changes.

Putin and his allies have every reason to rejoice. But as the ancient Greeks used to say, those whom the gods will destroy, they grant their wishes.

Vyacheslav Nikonov is president of the Polityka Foundation, Moscow.

copyright: project syndicate
This story has been viewed 1659 times.