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US won't dare to tell Taiwan 'no'

After Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (溫家寶) met US President George W. Bush in the White House on Dec. 9, Bush publicly said, "We oppose any unilateral decision by either China or Taiwan to change the status quo, and the comments and actions made by the leader of Taiwan indicate that he may be willing to make decisions unilaterally to change the status quo, which we oppose."

For Taiwan, his statement is serious.

But before he said that, Bush emphasized that US policy is based on the "three communiques" and the Taiwan Relations Act.

Apparently, the US' Taiwan Strait policy remains unchanged, and Bush did not, as some people in the media had predicted he would, repeat his predecessor Bill Clinton's "three noes" policy.

During a press conference after their talks, Wen, in Bush's name, made a heap of statements that conform to China's interests. Bush only nodded and did not speak. At best, this means he "heard" China's discourse; it does not mean he agreed with it.

The point is that Washington's real attitude will only be revealed after Wen returns home. We only have to look at the high-profile reception President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) received during his stop in New York to see that the US is playing a two-pronged strategy.

Wen proudly quoted Bush's statement, believing that the US president had publicly expressed his opposition to Taiwanese independence.

He misquoted Bush, and, furthermore, showed that China must take its cue from the US when dealing with Taiwan. Given that the Taiwan Relations Act is a US law, China must face the US before making military threats against Taiwan.

From the point of view of the US, it doesn't want any change -- what Bush termed a "unilateral attempt" -- by either Taiwan or China to the cross-strait status quo. Therefore, the US uses the "three communiques" to restrain Taiwan and the Taiwan Relations Act to restrain China.

But the problem is Taiwan is an independent democracy, and the sovereignty of a democracy lies in the hands of its people.

If Taiwanese people seek to express their opinions through democratic procedures, will the US really dare to tell them not to do so?

Former president Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) "special state-to-state relations" dictum met with a strong response from the US. And now the US is able to understand and accept Chen's "one country on each side" of the Taiwan Strait platform.

Similarly, Washington may have found it hard to accept the newly passed Referendum Law (公民投票法), but Chen has announced that he will not ditch his plan to hold a referendum. The US might have to open its mind and listen to what the Taiwanese people have to say and spend time learning about it.

Chin Heng-wei is editor in chief of Contemporary Monthly magazine.

Translated by Jackie Lin
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