The development of cross-strait relations is proceeding along two axes.
First, Beijing is shifting its strategy regarding the Taiwan issue from a direct way to an indirect way, which means the Chinese government is resorting to pressuring the Bush administration in order to influence Taiwan's internal affairs.
Second, it is obvious that both the pan-green camp and the pan-blue camp will converge on the ideological spectrum after the passage of the referendum legislation.
Given the development of these two trends, China is going to run short of ways to deal with Taiwan-related issues.
Since the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) came into power in 2000, the Chinese government has adopted the "wait and see" policy.
Beijing opposes any kind of peaceful dialogue with Taipei. That is because it regards the DPP government as equivalent to Taiwan independence, and the Chen Shui-bian (
Therefore, Beijing continues to intimidate Taiwan by the use of force, while expecting the pan-blue camp, which stands for the "one China" principle, to return to power on the other.
Most importantly, the Chinese government is attempting to manipulate its political leverage to affect Washington's stance with regard to cross-strait
relations.
Unfortunately, Beijing under-estimates the US commitment to democracy. There is no grave reason for the Bush administration to interrupt Taiwan's pursuit of democracy as the DPP government has succeeded in portraying the referendum as a sine qua non of the nation's democracy. Chen repeatedly emphasized -- in an interview with the The New York Times -- that holding a referendum would have no bearing on the so-called unification or independence issues.
Likewise, Beijing has to persuade the Bush administration to believe that holding a referendum is equal to Taiwan independence. The Chen administration has shown considerable flexible political finesse in this respect.
In the case of the referendum legislation, furthermore, the Chinese government was disappointed with the pan-blue camp.
Beijing had expected that the pan-blue camp would block the legislation of a referendum law. But the pan-blue camp has long been accused of standing in line with China, and they decided to make an about-face on this issue to eliminate this accusation.
As a result, the pan-green and the pan-blue camps will take similar standpoints toward the Chinese government in some ways. In other words, Beijing should drop its unrealistic expectations of Taiwan's political parties.
The people in Taiwan are the key. It is impossible for the government to approve Beijing's "one China" precondition for talks if most Taiwanese people oppose it. This is related to the nation's democracy rather than Taiwan independence.
If Beijing can't figure this out, the standoff between two sides of the Taiwan Strait will probably continue.
As the experience of the 1996 presidential election showed, both military intimidation and verbal attacks by Beijing are counterproductive.
Chinese civilization is famous for its benevolence and peace-loving nature instead of hostility and bellicosity.
Unfortunately, most Taiwan-ese people feel that Beijing's policy toward Taiwan completely contradicts that principle of Chinese civilization.
Chiang Chen-hou is a doctoral student at the University of Denver's Graduate School of International Studies.
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