Change is surely one salient character of Taiwan's politics. Not long ago, the pan-Blue coalition demeaned President Chen Shui-bian's (
Many commentators explain such a sea change in terms of electoral strategy. By approaching the pan-Green coalition's progressive stance, the pan-Blue coalition might have a better chance of gaining support from swing voters who value this issue. By blurring the policy differences in this regard, the pan-Blue coalition might also have a better chance of diverting the election to other competition.
Strategic calculus is certainly a powerful tool for analyzing political behavior, but the market analysis of electoral politics is incomplete without considering voters' demands. The pan-Blue coalition would have little incentive to shift its position if the swing voters are oblivious to President Chen's appeal for a new constitution. If constitutional change is not an attractive issue to mainstream voters, Lien Chan's (連戰) counter-attack would be a reckless and irrational move.
Since politicians normally will not jeopardize their self-interest in vote maximization, they consider voters' reactions when framing their campaign platforms. A crude observation therefore can be inferred from the economic analysis of the electoral dynamics: there is an emerging social consensus in a loose sense that supports the movement for a "new" constitution in Taiwan. This proposition holds so long as we accept its basic presumption that politicians and voters are rational actors.
Speaking of the emerging consensus, at least two common grounds of the competing agendas deserve our attention. First, both the pan-Green and pan-Blue coalitions have promised to undertake comprehensive constitutional engineering. The prospective constitutional change thus will depart from the preceding incremental amendments and rewrite our constitutional order to a significant extent.
Secondly, both camps have pledged to submit the product of constitutional engineering to referendum. By invoking the popular will either in the form of constituent power or under the cloak of constituted power, the prospective constitutional change will express Taiwan's popular sovereignty in an unequivocal voice. Whether the name and symbols of the ROC will be changed or not, the new constitution will reaffirm the political reality that Taiwan is a sovereign state.
For better or for worse, the current electoral campaign has signaled the coming of a new constitutional moment. However, the significance of the emerging general will has not been fully captured, let alone elaborated. Most editorials still define the campaign for a new constitution as an unjustified adventure. Failing to appreciate the merits of constitutional change and the dynamics of electoral politics, these editorials can only depict our presidential candidates as boasting gamblers and voters as ignorant followers.
Do we really suffer from irrational leadership by our presidential candidates? Judging from the dissenters' media hegemony, the politicians' poor reputation and the voters' intelligence, this elitist accusation seems far from the truth. The majority of the people may be silent, but they are not fools. Before condemning the rise of populism, maybe the media elites should ponder why their arguments are rejected by the people.
One common bias among the dissenters, for example, is their narrow view on the presidential election. Because President Chen is seeking reelection, they argue that the upcoming election should focus on the incumbent's performance; to the extent that candidates still have to run with platforms, they think that only policies of normal politics -- policies regarding economy and education alike -- are legitimate issues. It is under these criteria that they denounce the current electoral politics as abnormal.
By the term "bias" I do not mean to suggest this neutral view is partisan-motivated. Nor do I think the idea to cool electoral competition and maintain social harmony by de-emphasizing the ideological divergence is purely senseless. This view is nonetheless hypocritical because it asks us to stifle the long-existing disagreements over constitutional politics and pretend the current Constitution can still integrate our society in the near future. No real harmony can be achieved in this way.
Holding policymakers accountable is certainly a basic function of elections, but so is providing prospective mandates. Whether an election functions more as retrospective control or as prospective choice is determined by the complex interactions between candidates, media, and voters. Each actor has his/her own preference, and he or she is free to persuade others. Humiliation, however, carries little force of persuasion.
In order to maintain political stability, constitutional change should not be easily initiated; political conservatives are justified in questioning the necessity of constitutional change. However, considering the crises of governability inherent in the current "impotent presidentialism," the ceaseless conflicts over national identity and the poor record of incremental reform, we do have a strong prima facie case for adopting a new constitution.
Constitutional change thus should be deemed as a genuine issue in this presidential election, and we should reject any conservative propaganda that seeks to marginalize or even demonize the discourse of constitutional politics.
While significant consensus has been achieved during the run-up to the electoral campaign, the upcoming election remains an onerous trial for the substantiation of revolutionary reform. The most urgent task is to transform the endless verbal battles into serious deliberation. Otherwise, there is little hope that consensus and good faith will nevertheless reemerge from the debris after the fierce presidential election.
Su Yen-tu is a visiting researcher at Harvard Law School.
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