Where some discern fresh green shoots of reform amid the thickets of North Korea's economic crisis, others see little but choking weeds and pernicious pests.
Monitoring the economy of a secretive communist state and would-be nuclear power is a fascinating and at times frustrating job that draws on think-tanks, aid agencies, anecdotal evidence, North Korean data and media -- and South Korean spies.
"All of them are useful," said Alexander Vorontsov, head of Korean studies at Russia's elite Academy of Sciences. "But one shouldn't overestimate them, rather use them to compare."
ILLUSTRATION: MOUNTAIN PEOPLE
Last week, credit ratings agency Standard and Poor's said it was only a matter of time before North Korea collapsed because its economic model was not sustainable.
That assessment caused a stir among North Korea experts around the world, notably outside financial research houses.
It also underscored the range of opinion on analysing the North's economic state, a subject that sounds arcane but has ramifications for South Korea's economy -- the fourth largest in Asia -- and regional powers China and Japan.
"I don't think the DPRK is likely to collapse imminently," said Marcus Noland, author of "Avoiding the Apocalypse", a book on scenarios for reform and collapse in the North and coping in the South. DPRK are the initials of the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Bradley Babson, a Washington-based expert on the North's economy, agreed, noting an informal market economy had emerged from the illegal shadows.
"System change is inevitable, but 'economic apocalypse' is by no means a foregone conclusion," he said. "I believe grass-roots change is well under way and that the condition of the population is greatly different today than it was in the mid-1990s."
Few would deny most of North Korea's 23 million people remain gripped by a crisis that was exacerbated in the 1990s by floods, famine and the evaporation of aid from post-communist Moscow. Charities and UN aid agencies say malnutrition is still high.
But views differ on what the future holds.
"Some people say this economy may collapse tomorrow or some people say this economy may collapse in decades," said Park Suhk-sam, senior economist in the North Korean Economic Studies Section at the Bank of Korea (BOK), the South's central bank.
"From our viewpoint, the North Korean economy seems to have revived since last year," he said.
The BOK publishes an annual analysis of the North Korean economy with data on anything from electricity to fertilizer.
The bank calculates a nominal figure for the North's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of a country's economic health. It is just a fraction of the South's -- Dominique Dwor-Frecaut of Barclays Capital puts it at three percent.
"I think this set of statistics is the most comprehensive one you can find in the world," Park said of the BOK's work, explaining data came from the National Intelligence Service.
The trail cools when one asks the spy agency for details.
"Sorry, we cannot comment on your request," said a spokesman.
Park gave open -- non-secret -- figures to make the case for saying North Korea's economy was improving. He said reforms introduced on July 1 last year had freed prices but also raised wages. He had expected inflation but found instead an average worker could buy four times more rice than before the reforms.
He said the BOK used North-South trade figures and also scoured North Korean newspapers and academic journals for data and trends as well as reading foreign financial research.
"We try to get a balance," he said.
Babson said South Korean statistics were prepared more carefully than any other reporting on the North's economy. South Koreans also had increasing and unparalleled access.
Anecdotal evidence from aid agencies, refugees, diplomats, academics and business travellers add to the picture, say analysts such as Kim Young-yoon of the Korea Institute for National Unification think-tank.
Kathi Zellweger of the Catholic aid organization Caritas, for example, recently spent four weeks in North Korea.
She said in a presentation power cuts were fewer, apartments were being renovated and small firms were at work repairing bicycles and bartering goods. But the health system remains in deep crisis and food is so short fields are guarded.
Michael Hay, a British consultant on North Korea, and Russia's Vorontsov said they had noticed improvements in Pyongyang such as street lighting, vendors and markets. But, as ever, that can be only part of the story.
"I see only my tip of my part of the elephant's trunk," said Hay. "That's the problem and blessing I repeat to all."
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, people have been asking if Taiwan is the next Ukraine. At a G7 meeting of national leaders in January, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned that Taiwan “could be the next Ukraine” if Chinese aggression is not checked. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that if Russia is not defeated, then “today, it’s Ukraine, tomorrow it can be Taiwan.” China does not like this rhetoric. Its diplomats ask people to stop saying “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” However, the rhetoric and stated ambition of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on Taiwan shows strong parallels with