According to media reports, Wu Bangguo (吳邦國), chairman of the standing committee of China's National People's Congress, visited North Korea on Oct. 29. It is thought to be very likely that the purpose of Wu's visit was to persuade North Korea's leader to return to the six-nation talks. Since the crisis on the Korean Peninsula broke out in October last year, China has been reluctant to intervene actively in the North Korean nuclear arms issue. Apart from agreeing to provide the venue for talks between the US and North Korea, China has not applied any pressure on the North Koreans. This course of action has displeased the US, which hopes that China will use its influence to persuade North Korea to stop developing nuclear arms. As a result of US demands and pressure, China took on the role as mediator in the trilateral talks between the US, China and North Korea for the first time in April this year.
China holds three views on the North Korean nuclear arms issue. First, the Korean Peninsula should be made a nuclear-free zone where neither South nor North Korea should be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. Nor would the US be allowed to deploy nuclear weapons in South Korea and threaten China's national security. Second, peace and stability should be maintained on the Korean Peninsula and China should strengthen its friendly relations with surrounding countries in order to create the conditions beneficial to reform, deregulation and modernization. Third, dialogue and peaceful resolution should be adopted. The most efficient method to this end would be direct dialogue between the concerned parties, and opposition to heavy-handed US policies, economic sanctions and use of armed force to resolve the issue.
As far as China goes, the attempts at finding a solution to the nuclear arms crisis on the Korean Peninsula has provided it with an opportunity to take on a new diplomatic role and to use the situation in its surrounding buffer region to raise its own international status. Regardless of the extent to which China intervenes directly in negotiations, its efforts at mediation have already signaled the development of a new direction in Chinese diplomacy.
The national delegations to the six-nation talks held in Bei-jing in late August did not reach any substantive agreement. According to China, however, the targeted consensus on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula has already been achieved, and as long as the US changes its North Korean policy and stops threatening it, North Korea is ready to abandon its nuclear arms program.
There are three main aspects to the role China is playing in the six-nation talks -- to function as a mediator between North Korea and the US, as a buffer to stop the conflict between the two from escalating, and as a catalyst to the formation of various consensuses. It is worth noting that Russia and China both have been allied with North Korea in the past, and Russia has previously promoted the idea that it and China jointly guarantee North Korean security. If the six-nation talks are reopened in future, the implication is that China and Russia will stand behind North Korea, with the US, Japan and South Korea on the other side, thus creating a situation with three countries opposing each other. China's active role during the talks has won the approval of the other five participants, which will be an important factor in any future attempt by China to expand its influence.
China's active efforts at creating reconciliation, promoting talks and cooling things down will give it an advantage in future negotiations with the US to seek benefits for itself, in particular when it comes to Taiwan policy. In addition to calling on the Bush administration to offer official guarantees that it will not attack North Korea, China also demands that the US abide by the three joint Sino-US communiques, that it continue to support the one China principle, that it firmly oppose Taiwan independence, and that it properly handle the Taiwan issue. This shows that China intends to play the North Korean card in an attempt at impressing the US. The US has in fact already showed a great deal of approval and gratitude towards China for its active, effective and constructive efforts towards the resolution of the North Korean nuclear arms crisis following Hu Jintao's (胡錦濤) succession to the Chinese presidency. China's strategy seems to be to take active action on the North Korean issue to win the approval of the conservative faction in the Bush administration, so that they will pay more attention to Beijing's interests when they formulate the US' Taiwan policy in the future.
Although incumbent or retired US officials repeatedly tell Taiwan that the strengthening of US-China ties is not tantamount to a US retreat as far as the security of Taiwan is concerned, it cannot be denied that the Sept. 11 attacks have led to a change in the US-China relationship. US President George W. Bush's previous clear pro-Taiwan stance has shifted towards China, and the US repeatedly issues guarantees that it continues to uphold the "one China" policy, that it does not support -- and even that it opposes -- Taiwan independence. Furthermore, Bush has visited China twice since he took office. All this is sufficient evidence that the relationship between the two countries is warming up. To a certain extent, this situation restricts the extent to which the US can support Taiwan. During Bill Clinton's presidency, for example, the US often said that a solution to the cross-strait issue "should be agreed to by the Taiwanese people."
Since Bush became president, however, this has been changed to "should be agreed to by the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait." Bush's softening support for Taiwan is already being questioned by conservatives in the US, who believe that Bush has made a clear retreat from his previous strong support in favor of a democratic Taiwan. When it comes to Taiwanese security, Bush has changed his opinion from saying that the US will "do whatever it takes to help Taiwan defend itself" to saying that the US will "do what we can to help Taiwan defend itself." This is a very dangerous signal.
If in the future the US wants to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table, it must rely even more on China's help, and China will be able to reap benefits from the contradictions and conflict between North Korea and the US. We should continue to pay attention to whether this will cause US cross-strait policy to lean still further towards China.
Liu Chin-tsai is assistant professor at Yuda Institute of Business Technology.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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