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US might, Olympics can block aggression

Former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) once said, "Our time has arrived." Time for what? Time to take off the ill-fitting dress of the Republic of China and establish an independent country under the name of Taiwan.

Why has the time arrived? First, Lee believes that Beijing will not dare challenge the US' military might at present. Second, since Beijing is the host of the 2008 Olympics, it will not cause any mischief before that time.

The first hypothesis is based on the judgment that the US has strengthened its unilateralism after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. But it is still unknown whether US foreign policy will change after the US presidential election next year.

The second hypothesis assumes that Chinese leaders and people attach more importance to the Olympic Games than the Taiwan issue. This hypothesis also requires more analysis. Of course, Chinese nationalists will refute such a claim.

To what extent are the Olympics actually related to China's economic interests and international image? What is the relationship between these problems and China's future development strategies? A more thorough analysis is required before a conclusion can be reached.

Also seeing the Olympics in Beijing as a watershed, Japanese academic Kenichi Ohmae offers a different view on Taiwan-China relations. He says that the best opportunity to unify under a federal system will be some time prior to the Olympics.

In addition to the trend of China-centered economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region, Ohmae's argument also takes into consideration the thesis that former Chinese president Jiang Zemin (江澤民), while he still has some influence, will promote unification to help secure his place in history. Ohmae predicts that the two will be unified by around 2005.

One Olympics, but there are two interpretations.

These interpretations involve not only objective factual analyses, but also incorporate the values and strategies of these "prophets." Since Lee hopes to lead the people of Taiwan toward independence, he certainly focuses on the question of what time would be the most advantageous to do so.

Ohmae has long advocated cross-national economic integration in the hope of easing a standoff between sovereign states and increasing economic interaction between regions. He not only advocates that Taiwan and China establish a federation but also encourages Japan to actively interact with the

members of this federation. From a short- to medium-term point of view, the year 2008 indeed offers a good opportunity.

Whose prediction is correct? This involves changes in real-life situations and the ability of the players to implement what they advocate. A more interesting question is: Will the world be at peace after 2008? If Taiwan declares independence and Bei-jing does not use force before the Olympics, Taiwan still has to face the pressure Beijing applies at international occasions and the possibility that China might launch a war after the Olympics.

If unification occurs within the next two or three years, how should the various political, economic and social systems of Taiwan and China be combined? Won't such interaction lead to still greater conflict?

Policy implementation must not be halted because of concern about difficulties that may result. Advocates must make more rational statements about the processes involved. They should also foresee problems they might encounter in succeeding stages after attaining the initial goal, and come up with methods for dealing with any problems. Only then can they persuade people to join forces and implement their plans.

Ku Er-teh is a freelance writer.

Translated by Jackie Lin
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