Spain is playing high-stakes poker with its rejection of the voting system proposed in a draft European constitution, but money, as well as political influence, may be the ultimate prize, some analysts believe.
Objections by Spain and Poland to a simplified voting system for an enlarged EU of 450 million people have irked big partners, posing the main threat to a smooth endorsement of the draft constitution drawn up by a 105-member convention.
Under the proposed new rules, most issues could be decided by a simple majority of states representing 60 percent of the EU's population, increasing the power of the four most populous EU countries -- Germany, Britain, France and Italy.
Spain and Poland, one of 10 countries set to join the union next year, insist on keeping the complex voting system agreed on at Nice in 2000, which gives them an influence out of proportion to their populations, each of around 40 million people.
"The convention had no mandate to revise the institutional agreements of Nice," Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, fighting his last major European battle before he leaves office next year, said recently.
Most of the EU's current 15 members want the draft constitution left largely intact.
Behind Spain's objections lies a desire to avoid losing the place at the top table it gained in Nice.
Spanish media point out that, under the proposed system, it would be virtually impossible for Spain to block a decision seen as harmful to its interests if it did not have the support of one or two of the "big" countries.
The power to block EU decisions has gained importance since Aznar fell out with Germany and France, the traditional EU power brokers, over the Iraq war.
FRAGILE ALLIANCES
The pro-US Aznar has sought new alliances with countries such as Britain, Italy and Poland.
But the fragility of these alliances was brought home to Aznar last month when he was not invited to a summit of British Prime Minister Tony Blair, French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in Berlin.
The Spanish government has said it plans to put the outcome of the constitutional talks to a referendum next year.
John Palmer, political director of the European Policy Centre, a Brussels-based think tank, said it would be a disaster if the whole constitutional package was reopened. He suggested there could be scope for a compromise with Spain, perhaps by increasing its representation in the European Parliament.
"At the end of the day, the Poles and Spaniards will have to ask themselves ... do they want to take on their shoulders political responsibility for a major constitutional crisis?" he said.
Another possible compromise might be to raise the population threshold for majority voting to 66 percent, making it easier to put together a blocking minority. A former Spanish policymaker said he thought this might be enough to win over Madrid.
Entwined with the constitutional debate is EU funding.
Since joining the EU in 1986, Spain has received billions of euros from Brussels, enabling it to modernize its infrastructure rapidly and to raise citizens' living standards.
This year alone, it received a net injection of more than 7 billion euros [US$8.3 billion] of EU funds. But that cash is expected to dwindle as money is diverted to new entrants such as Poland.
Germany, the EU's major net contributor, has made veiled threats that its funding for the next EU budget for 2007 to 2013 will depend on progress on the constitution, prompting speculation Spain could lose out financially if it holds out against Berlin.
Daniel Keohane, research fellow at the Center for European Reform in London, suggests the opposite may be true: Spain and Poland may be playing hardball on the constitution to secure a better deal in EU budget negotiations starting next year.
He said there was a better chance Spain and Poland would give in on their constitutional demands "if their interests are more likely to be protected in the budgetary discussions."
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