Amid all the clutter that has been rocketed into space is a clunky satellite expected to circle the Earth until 2070. The satellite, the Dong Fang Hong (
It seems likely that the song, like Maoist communism, is no longer playing.
When China plans to become the third nation to launch an astronaut into space, as soon as tomorrow, the government's top leaders will be sending a new message, to two audiences.
To the rest of the world, China is displaying its growing technological prowess, staking its claim to a future role in space and reasserting its case for being considered a power equal to the US.
To its own people, the Chinese leadership hopes to stir pride and nationalism and to prove that the Communist Party, rather than being a dinosaur, is capable of the most technical of achievements. A full-throttle propaganda campaign is under way, with huge coverage in state-run newspapers and a 20-part series about the space program about to run on state-run television.
"It's primarily about showing the world; it's about prestige," said Brian Harvey, author of a 1998 book about the Chinese space program. "It's a vindication of their political system."
The mission is only meant to orbit the earth 14 times in 21 hours, but it opens the way toward China's much bigger ambitions in space. The government plans to launch a Hubble-like space telescope and to begin exploring the moon within three years. Analysts say China is working to launch a space station, possibly to coincide with the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing.
For now, though, the Shenzhou V is the center of attention. The spacecraft is scheduled to blast off as early as tomorrow or as late as Friday from the Jiuquan launching site in the Gobi Desert. The government has still not identified the astronauts. Nor has it said how many astronauts will be on board, through there reportedly could be as many as three.
It might seem anticlimactic to join a space club where the original members, the former Soviet Union and the United States, each sent astronauts into space more than 40 years ago. But if China's late entry speaks to its arrested development, it also underscores the country's determination to be in space and to pursue scientific excellence.
Centuries ago, China invented the rocket as well as gunpowder. But Chinese political analysts and historians note that the country's leaders, many of them engineers or technicians, are strongly influenced by Chinese history from the 19th and early 20th centuries, when the country faced foreign invaders with superior weapons and technology.
"From that time on, China has always been preoccupied with copying and catching up with foreign science and technology," said Lei Yi, an historian of modern China at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "The launching of the Shenzhou V is really a logical extension of this line of thought that goes back a century -- saving the nation through science and technology."
The former Chinese president and party chief, Jiang Zemin (
"That has major resonance for Jiang -- for all of them," the editor said. "They're all engineers and scientists."
Both Jiang and his successor as president and party chief, Hu Jintao (
There have been reports of debate within China's scientific community about the value of spending so much money on space -- the annual budget for the program is US$2 billion -- and whether the mission will generate real scientific breakthroughs. He Zuoxiu, a senior physicist at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, who is also a vocal booster for science in China, said he would applaud a successful launching, but cautioned against reading too much into one.
"If the launch is successful, we'll have joined the space club, but that doesn't mean we're a scientific power -- far from it," he said.
He said China spends only about 1 percent of its gross domestic product on scientific research and development. He said he understood the reasons for sending astronauts into space, but noted that, scientifically, there may be more pressing areas of concern.
"China faces a severe energy shortage, the gap in oil production is growing," he said, offering examples. "Also, transport is extremely backward -- look at the railways." But he concluded that "international prestige is the most important consideration here."
Asked about plans for a moon mission, he added:
"Some people will say that we have more pressing problems to deal with before taking on a moon landing, like feeding and clothing all our people."
It is unclear, as yet, how much the launch preparations are resonating with the public. Random interviews in Beijing found that most people were supportive and thought it would be good for China's prestige. One state-run newspaper this past weekend reported that people were pouring into the launching area in hopes of getting a glimpse of the blastoff.
Lei, the historian, said he expected the public to be very supportive.
"The Chinese public is also deeply aware of China's image as a scientifically backward country, and I think the idea of reviving China as a scientific power is very popular," he said. He said average Chinese, along with government officials, were stunned by the technical expertise demonstrated by the United States in the Iraq war.
The emergence of China as a space power, possibly with military goals, has spurred some predictions of another space race. India, for one, is rushing to match China. But even as conservatives in the United States regard China's intentions warily, other experts minimize the chance of a coming race with America.
John M. Logsdon, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, said it would likely take a decade for China to send an astronaut to the moon. He said he did not think that the Shenzhou V launch had military applications, even though the space program is developing antisatellite weapons and robotic space weapons.
It clearly is a symbol of national pride, he said. "It's earning them a seat at the central table on space issues."
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