Vatican prepares for new pope

REUTERS , VATICAN CITY
Monday, Oct 13, 2003, Page 9

ILLUSTRATION: YU SHA

Cardinals red caps will gather at the Vatican next week to celebrate Pope John Paul's 25th anniversary in what many are calling a dress rehearsal for the election of his successor.

Their will bring behind-doors speculation, fuelled for months by the 83-year-old pope's visibly deteriorated health, to fever pitch.

There are no official candidates and cardinals are loathe to talk about the next conclave to select a pope, but many "vaticanisti," the seasoned journalists who cover the Vatican, have already drawn up their short lists.

The Third World in general and Latin America in particular figure high on most lists due to the concentration of Catholics in these regions and the growing view that combating economic inequalities will be the big challenge of the next papacy.

"There is the sense that it would be an extraordinary act of symbolism to elect a Third World pope, it would put a human face on the suffering of the Third World," said John Allen, columnist for the National Catholic Reporter and author of Conclave.

Vatican say it would be comparable to the election of Poland's Karol Wojtyla in 1978 when one of the Church's main challenges was combating communism.

A Latin American pope?

Two of Allen's top choices are Latin American -- Brazil's Claudio Hummes, an outspoken defender of workers and peasants, and Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras, a media-wise rising star in the church who has made demands for social justice his mantra. Both hold traditional doctrinal views.

Hummes, 69, is considered a unifying force within the Church with pastoral experience in the world's biggest Catholic country as archbishop of Sao Paulo. Rodriguez Maradiaga, 60, is the charismatic archbishop of Tegucigalpa.

But Latin America doesn't hold the monopoly on "papabili" -- the front-runners in the unofficial race to become the next leader of the world's one billion Roman Catholics.

Issues decentralizing power could also play a key in electing a successor after 25 years with the widely revered but often overpowering Pope John Paul II.

"One of the quiet criticisms you'll get from cardinals is that John Paul's pontificate has been marked too much by his personality, too dominating," Allen said.

A behind-the-scenes administrator could be just the ticket, according to some experts, which would favor an Italian candidate since they have the most experience running the Vatican and Roman curia.

Dionigi Tettamanzi, 69, the plump and affable head of one of the world's biggest archdioceses in Milan, is at the top of the list of Italians. Online bookmaker www.paddypower.com has the tightest odds on him.

His main drawback is simply that many outside Italy may not want to see the Church back in the hands of the Italians.

"The problem is that the ideal candidate doesn't exist," said a veteran Vatican journalist who asked not to be named.

Islam in, America out

After the pope creates 31 new cardinals on October 21, 135 cardinals will be under 80 and therefore eligible to vote in the next secret conclave in the Sistine Chapel for a papal successor. They are also technically all candidates.

With such a huge number of possibilities, the coming anniversary celebrations take on even greater significance because they will allow cardinals who often barely know each other to sound out their colleagues on important issues.

Views Islam and inter-religious dialogue, for example, are gaining importance.

"People are going to talk about what they think is the main challenge facing the Church in the next quarter century," the veteran Vatican journalist said. "Is it relations with Islam? Then the next pope may very well be Arinze."

Francis Arinze, 70 years old and born in Nigeria, ran the Vatican department on inter-religious dialogue for many years and if elected would be the first black pope.

One the next pope almost certainly will not be is American, despite the size of the US Catholic community and its financial clout.

"It has nothing to do with the personal qualities of the American candidates," Allen said. "But it is unthinkable that they would elect a superpower pope, the Vatican prizes its diplomatic independence too much."

Age also help narrow the field, since virtually nobody wants another 25 to 30 year papacy.

Other names include Brussels Archbishop Godfried Danneels, Christoph Schoenborn, the young archbishop of Vienna, and Vatican insider Dario Castrillon Hoyos, who also has geography on his side as he is from Colombia.

But as many vaticanisti like to point out, Pope John Paul has already outlived more than a few former front-runners.

"It's entirely possible that the next pope is among the new batch the pope is making on Oct. 21," one expert said.