Such an approach might appear acceptable if Taiwan had the power and influence to sustain an independent posture in the face of the unrelenting power and influence of China, but a sober assessment of its steadily diminishing standing in world affairs would appear to provide Taipei over the longer term with little choice other than to consolidate relations with the US or to choose accommodation with Beijing.
The arguments against the former course are many. Most notably it would: force Taiwan's leaders to curb rhetoric and actions seen in the US as disturbing cross-strait stability sought by US leaders, press Taiwanese authorities to take more substantive actions including increased military spending to support defense efforts sought by Washington to complement increased US defense efforts to deter China from attacking Taiwan and push Taiwan's leaders to deal more forthrightly with US complaints over trade issues.
Taiwan also has no assurance that a future US government might not reverse course in cross-strait relations, as has happened in the past.
It is precisely with that outcome in mind that Taiwan's leaders should be taking steps now to consolidate ties with a friendly US administration rather than continually irritate US leaders with political, military and other moves that may provoke a positive response in domestic politics but work against long-term US-Taiwan relations.
Taiwan's leaders should have some assurance that once they improve their relationship with the Bush administration and set precedents of closer US-Taiwan relations, these precedents will prove hard to reverse. In particular, the US Congress, media and interest groups that have long been friendly to Taiwan can be expected to resist a reversal in relations.
Congress and these other groups have a hard time under the division of powers in the US Constitution to initiate steps forward in US relations with Taiwan, but Congress is much better positioned to block a reversal of existing relations.
Robert Sutter is a professor of Asian studies in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.



