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A common enemy pushes India into Israel's welcoming arms

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon arrived in India on Monday bearing arms, or more precisely, US$1 billion worth Israeli spy planes. In doing so, the first visit by an Israeli prime minister to the subcontinent threatens not only to accelerate the arms race between nuclear rivals, India and Pakistan, but also marks the emergence of a new US-backed coalition of the willing in a region whose influence stretches from the Bay of Bengal to the Dead Sea.

The 150-strong Israeli delegation underlines how far both countries have travelled since they established full diplomatic relations with each other in 1992. But it was the re-ordering of the world since the Sept. 11 attacks that has seen both nations' interest converge to such an extent the Delhi government's national security adviser speaks of America, Israel and India being part of an "alliance [which] would have the political will and moral authority to take bold decisions in extreme cases of terrorist provocation."

Seen in this light, Sharon's visit is a triumph for the George W. Bush administration and India's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party, which rose to power after its footsoldiers wrecked a 16th-century mosque in northern India and sparked religious riots across the country 10 years ago. Whereas India, the world's biggest democracy, once was the self-styled leader of the Third World and lectured rich nations about the ills of colonialism and perils of capitalism, it now acts much like any other nation: as a selfish state pursuing its own interests above all others.

This modus vivendi has been cast while India's political conversation of has become dominated by the perceived threat of Islamic terrorism. These changes, coupled with peace deals between Israel and Arab neighbors Egypt and Jordan, have made it easier for New Delhi's historic antagonism towards Israel to be replaced with more friendly relations.

Diplomats say New Delhi's support for the Palestinian movement remains undimmed -- India was the first non-Arab nation to recognize Palestine's independence and first country to offer the Palestinain Liberation Organization an embassy -- but it is more muted than in the past. Without a lasting peace in the Middle East, India, which imports a quarter of its oil requirements from the Gulf and has 3 million citizens working there, will not give up casting its ballots with the pro-Arab majority at the UN against Israel. But after Sharon's visit, New Delhi is unlikely to be leading the criticism.

India, despite being home to a third of the world's poor, spends US$2 billion annually on Israeli military equipment. This figure is set to rise -- and will see Israel replace Russia as India's biggest arms supplier. On India's shopping list are three Phalcon airborne early warning systems -- an Israeli version of America's AWACS jets -- and the US$2.5 billion anti-ballistic Arrow missile. Both operate with high-tech US components and sale of these require Washington's assent.

Significantly the Bush administration has given a green light for deal involving the Phalcon spy planes, which would enable India to survey Pakistan secretly.

It is worth noting that when China asked to buy the same system, Washington blocked the purchase. India has yet to secure permission for the Arrow system, which many fear might see Pakistan expanding its ballistic arsenal. Again the decision will not be made in New Delhi or Tel Aviv but in the US.

Although India risked US ire ever since it conducted its first overt test of nuclear weapons in 1998, the arrival of George W. Bush in the White House made it easier for New Delhi to promote itself as America's "natural ally."

The turning point was the Bush initiative on national missile defense, an ambitious but unproven space-based shield. This was met with suspicion by Russia, New Delhi's old patron, but embraced by India's defense establishment, who were worried about nuclear weapons spreading to groups of terrorists not bound by international treaties on nuclear deterrence. As Indian analyst C. Raja Mohan in his book, Crossing the Rubcion, notes, "India seized the opportunities opened by the Bush administration's comprehensive overhaul of the notions of arms control and nuclear deterrence."

This does not mean that the US and India see eye to eye about all things: India's refusal to send 20,000 troops to Iraq without a UN mandate angered many in Washington. Also New Delhi's warm relations with Iran, an "axis of evil" country, perplexes Bush's team.

Still, the benefits of engagement with Tel Aviv have not gone unnoticed by Pakistan, which does not recognize Israel. Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf recently called for a debate on whether relations should be established with the Jewish state. It would certainly be a coup for Sharon if a Muslim nation of Pakistan's size were to recognize Israel.

For now Pakistan is warning of the dangers of close Indian-Israeli engagement -- which have already seen New Delhi supplied with surface-to-air missiles, robot drones and unmanned aerial vehicles for use along the Line of Control, which divides the troubled Muslim-majority state of Kashmir between India and Pakistan.

Coming so soon after Britain's own decision to sell US$1.5 billion of Hawk jets, Israel's new arms deals underlines how lucrative new the markets in Asia have become. A cross party group of British MPs earlier this year raised concerns about UK arms exports to India and Pakistan, questioning whether the government took "sufficiently into account the risk of regional instability on the subcontinent when making export-licensing decisions." It appears the risks of arms sales have been eclipsed by the diplomatic opportunities they offer.
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