In 2000, Taiwan experienced its first-ever transfer of power in its democratic history. By using sonorous slogans, Chinese National-ist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) hope to create a second transfer of power next year. According to the pan-blue camp, the first party rotation took place because of the KMT-PFP split that divided the votes between Lien and Soong, and former president Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) secret support for Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁).
Now, the KMT and PFP will do their utmost to work together and concentrate votes. This time, they believe they will take back the power they lost. The two parties, as well as Lien and Soong, appeal to the voters by attacking the unsatisfactory record of Chen's government, economic decline, a high unemployment rate and people's hardship. By making the second transfer of power come true, Lien and Soong will help people be happy again.
Of course, the DPP is appre-hensive about the possible success of the KMT-PFP appeal. When he visited Taipei County to secure votes at the grass-roots level, Chen particularly praised the performance of Taipei County Commissioner Su Tseng-chang (
Chen said in his appeal to the voters that he would present more administrative achievements and development plans in his second term if he gets re-elected.
In fact, Chen's appeal is modest and conservative. It is natural for political figures to plead for votes by presenting their administrative achievements.
However, Taiwan has a peculiar historical background. After it retreated to Taiwan in 1949, the KMT government brutally put down opposition forces. The 228 Incident also created a sense of fear in the population under the KMT government. Consequently, the terror of assassinations and confinement emerged in an endless stream in the 1950s.
Shortly before former president Chiang Ching-kuo's (蔣經國) death, the KMT government reluctantly lifted martial law and put half-baked democracy into practice. Lee succeeded to the presidency and remained in office for 12 years. Lee was directly elected by popular vote for his last four-year term.
When the National Assembly was discussing the format of the presidential election at that time, some political figures, including Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), advocated an indirect presidential election. A direct presidential election was a milestone for the nation's democracy. The path to democracy was nevertheless difficult for Taiwan. Some people would try to eliminate the difficulties, while some others would repeatedly block the efforts.
History should restore truth and leave a record in order to provide a clear explanation for future generations.
What is peculiar is that both camps ignore the issue of national identity. The KMT and PFP think that Taiwan has no problem with national identity. In other words, Taiwan is not a "country." The so-called "country" is shared with the PRC across the Taiwan Strait, under the same roof. In the DPP, some people have advocated that the party should temporarily avoid discussing national identity in order to attract middle-of-the-road voters.
We can see that the two groups of future candidates have turned into two different groups of political leaders because of the problem of national identity. They have used their personal backgrounds to manipulate the voters.
Chen receives the majority of support south of the Choshui River, in central Taiwan, while Lien and Soong have more supporters north of the river. Chen is preferred by the majority of Hoklo people, while Lien and Soong have more support from Hakkas,
mainlanders and Aborigines.
No single group of political leaders, with their distinct position, is able to attract all the voters. As a result, whether Chen will get re-elected will depend on whether national identity can be clearly determined. If Lien and Soong win the election, Taiwan will lean toward China. If Chen is re-elected, the consolidation of Taiwan's sovereignty will be even more conclusive.
Besides national identity, the democratization of public policies has also gained importance in this election. Taiwan lacks the kind of mutual respect normal democracies have. It is not easy to have unity without respect. Without unity, it is impossible to create common sentiments, not to mention unanimous public opinion.
Under such circumstances, Chen should make a bold move to present the idea of democratic consolidation in order to challenge the opposing camp's argument of a second transfer of power. It is only when Chen gets re-elected that Taiwan's democracy will become consolidated.
If Lien and Soong win the election, it will mean the collapse of Taiwan's democracy.
Liao Yung-lai is the executive director of Central Taiwan Joint Services Center of the Executive Yuan.
Translated by Grace Shaw
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