The political situation is unstable and dangerous

The unsuccessful military coup that occurred in the Philippines in July has once again highlighted the difficulty of consolidating democratization. Many countries have become democratized in the last half of the 20th century, but there are also new democratized countries, particularly in South America, Africa and Asia, where military coups have happened repeatedly and authoritarian regimes have been restored.

In Asia, military coups and authoritarianism still cast a shadow over some countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, Myanmar and Pakistan, making their political situations unstable.

Former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) came to power after the death of late president Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國) in 1988. When former premier Hau Pei-tsun (郝柏村), who has an impressive military background, was relieved from office in 1993, Lee said that "it is most dangerous when the snow thaws" and that Taiwan could have a military coup at any moment. The electoral victory of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) in 2000 ended 50 years of one-party rule by the KMT. In a culture of long-term "political correctness" that stressed the party, country and military as one entity, Chen sensed a possible perilous situation that could trigger a military coup, and therefore took a series of actions to please military leaders.

With regard to the recent military mutiny in the Philippines, people find it comforting to hear the pan-blue camp, scholars and experts all agree that it is impossible, at this time, for the same thing to happen in Taiwan. This is despite the political situation in Taiwan still being unstable due to serious contention between the pan-blue and pan-green camps, and although the nationalization of the armed forces has not been fully completed.

I agree with this view, but the crisis of Taiwan's recognition as a country still has not been eliminated, unfortunately. The restoration of authoritarianism through a military coup may have become a thing of the past, but the shadow of the restoration of the KMT government still lingers on.

This shadow will become more apparent in next year's presidential election, when Taiwan could possibly return to the danger zone of becoming a subjugated country once again. It is not a sensationalistic point of view but a reality.

First, KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) is proud to be "Chinese," unequivocally supporting a return to the 1992 "one China" consensus. PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) also advocated the "one-China roof," under which Taiwan will permanently become a part of China. The unification position of both Lien and Soong on "one China" is diametrically opposite to and incompatible with Lee's "special state-to-state relations" dictum and Chen's "one country on each side" dictum that advocates Taiwan's autonomy and independence.

Second, the stated objective of a Lien-Soong ticket is to return to the era of Chiang. Before his father passed away, Chiang presided over the White Terror with his hands covered in blood. After his father died, Chiang grasped control of the party, government and armed forces. Although he later advocated economic and political reforms to go with the trend of the time, the White Terror still persisted and the Kaohsiung Incident took place in 1979.

Until his death, Chiang was an authoritarian leader, a "soft authoritarian" figure as described by a professor from Columbia University. It would be a restoration of authoritarianism if Lien and Soong want Taiwanese people to rebel against Lee and return to the Chiang era.

Chiou Chwei-liang is a visiting professor at the Graduate Institute of Southeast Asia Studies, Tamkang University.

Translated by Grace Shaw