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Chen using cross-strait issue for own gain

Recently, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) tossed up the issue of direct transportation links across the Taiwan Strait. Cross-strait agencies in the Executive Yuan also said operational procedures would be completed soonest. Of course, Chen's harping on again about direct transportation is based on election considerations.

First of all, I believe this is a complementary measure to Chen's campaign keynote -- "one country on each side of the Taiwan Strait" versus "one China." In Taiwan, business circles have been the most vigorous advocates of direct transportation links, as we all know. To encourage businesses to help him improve the economy, and to prevent them from tilting toward the blue camp, Chen must provide something for business circles to look forward to. That was why Chen said the political obstacles to direct transportation would be cleared after March 20, the day of the presidential election.

Chen wants to use the direct transportation platform's as an "inoculation" against the impact of his one-country-on-each-side dictum. China's acceptance of his conditions for direct transportation would mean tacit acknowledgement of the one-country-on-each-side stance. A curt rejection from China would imply that the other side has not changed its hegemonic nature. Chen can then say righteously that the outcome is not his fault. He can also highlight the legitimacy of "one country on each side."

Secondly, Chen's goal is to force China to take a stance before the election. Chen has stressed that cross-strait relations since he came to power have not been as bad as the outside world has thought. If that is true, why did he raise the one-country-on-each-side dictum? Why did he deliberately prick the sensitive cross-strait nerve? Everyone, including Chen, clearly knows how the cross-strait relations are faring. On the surface, China seems to be ignoring Chen's "one country on each side," but it has been working on the US under the table and trying to pressure the DPP government via the US. After all, China would rather listen to Chen's soliloquy than give him a chance to expand his platform.

Finally, I believe Chen has raised the direct transportation issue for American ears. Chen said Taiwan-US relations have been at their best since 1979. This has left some room for interpretation. In fact, Chen cares very much about the US' response. Even before his inaugural speech on May 20, 2000, he guaranteed that the speech would "definitely satisfy the US." At the time, the US not only praised Taiwan's democratization, but also held considerable expectations about the DPP government. Three years after Chen came to power, however, how much have the substantive Taiwan-US relations improved except for some formalities like stopovers in the US for Taiwanese leaders? The reality is that not only has US President George W. Bush stated clearly that he "does not support" Taiwan independence, but many complaints have also emerged from US officials about the traditional trade and military relations with Taiwan. Recently, the US has even expressed concern about Chen's referendum platform, forcing Chen's administration to send a large delegation to Washington to give an explanation. If we call such relations "good," then I really don't know how "bad" is to be defined.

In any case, Chen still has some foresight in saying resolutely that the two sides of the Strait won't enter the implementation stage of direct transportation until the end of next year. This is because the political changes in Taiwan after the election will inevitably change Taiwan-US-China relations. We may then see some hope for a solution to the "three direct links" issue.

Chao Chun-shan is a professor at the Graduate Institute of China Studies, Tamkang University.

Translated by Francis Huang
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