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By-election defeat offers lessons for green camp

Elections are always followed by a great variety of commentaries by people picking and choosing from the election to expound their ideas on something unrelated. The Hualien County commissioner by-election is no exception. For example, there are those making much of former president Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) "silence," saying that it is due to the even support for the four biggest ethnic groups in Hualien, that there would be no market for Taiwan independence, and that both the blue and green camps therefore are treating Lee as a pariah.

Even though such talk isn't entirely groundless, it misses the historical aspect. Claiming that independence has a market only where ethnic Taiwanese are in majority, or that Taiwan independence is a matter of chauvinism, is really too much of an exaggeration. In fact, blue-camp candidate Hsieh Shen-shan's (謝深山) being seen as Lee's man was one of the things that created problems for his campaign team. Had Lee campaigned for the DPP's You Ying-lung (游盈隆), wouldn't that automatically have cleared Hsieh? Besides, "old uncle Lee" is not idle, and the by-election of a county commissioner is not reason enough for him to go campaigning.

Hualien and Taitung have always been weak electoral districts for the DPP. Add to this the DPP's late decision on its candidate and reports that the party was trying to enroll a deserter from the KMT. You therefore took up his task at a difficult time, and would only have had a chance of winning had the opposition been evenly split. However, to show the sincerity of the pan-blue alliance and joint KMT-PFP ticket in next year's presidential election, the blue camp joined forces to pull Hsieh through.

Media incidents, such as attacks on the central government and inappropriate corruption investigations by police from the Ministry of the Interior, have all been bad for the DPP. It was an achievement for You even to maintain basic support. Illusions about winning were simply a matter of trying to turn unrealistic, subjective hopes into objective fact.

You, a Hualien native with an advanced education and good reputation, returned to his hometown for what could have been a moving story. However, setting up a permanent office only following several elections,he was left with little room to maneuver when opponents accused him of leaving after electoral defeats and returning before elections. There is much culture and history to develop in Hualien and Taitung, and many environmental issues to be resolved. You, a scholar and an intellectual, should have gathered friends from cultural and social circles early on, to research Hualien and Taitung history and geography, and propose more visionary and idealistic opinions. Not doing so, but issuing checks and making promises only when an election approaches, makes the claim of being public-policy oriented difficult. If it wasn't for the green banner still being ideologically legitimate in Taiwan, the election result could have been even worse.

You's defeat, however, is not the defeat of an individual. Since the DPP's ascent to power, its reform image has faded. The distribution of talented people has maintained the old system rather than being innovative, and there is an atmosphere within the party that defeat is better than sticking to ideology. The party is still doing well in some southern counties and cities where it used to be strong. But how could it break through if it is unable to ignite the passion from the tangwai (outside the KMT) era, with idealistic talented people and a reform agenda? I hope the defeat in Hualien will serve as a warning to the DPP in next year's presidential election.

Chen Yi-shen is an associate research fellow in the Institute of Modern History at Academia Sinica.

Translated by Perry Svensson
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