The blue camp's morale has received a boost from Hsieh Shen-shan's (謝深山) victory in the Hualien County commissioner by-election, with the victorious KMT and PFP calling the race a prelude to next year's presidential election. The outcome was a setback for the green camp because its candidate You Ying-lung (游盈隆) garnered fewer votes than before despite the vigorous campaign support from the party. DPP deputy secretary-general Lee Chin-yung (李進勇) has even offered to resign over the defeat.
The green camp's bad luck does not stop here. The TSU caucus has decided to expel Legislator Su Yin-kuei (蘇盈貴) following a row within the party. A political atmosphere in which exists a united blue camp and a divided green camp is now taking shape.
For the blue camp, which has been the loser in almost all recent elections, the victory in Hualien is a big piece of good news signalling a rebound from rock bottom. But now is still too early for celebration. Hualien County has always been a stronghold of the blue camp. Given the blue camp's intensive efforts to create an image of unity and cooperation, and given Hsieh's experience in the political arena, the blue camp's victory was no surprise. Because Hualien accounts for only a very small percentage of the national electorate, a prediction for the presidential election based on the Hualien election results will be even less accurate than a prediction for US presidential election based on the New Hampshire election outcome.
There is a "pendulum theory" in Taiwan's election history. This means a political party favored by the goddess of victory should not be overjoyed because the goddess will turn and smile at another party in the next election. A defeated party will have a chance to make a comeback as long as it is determined to review its mistakes. A party that wins in an election can easily become arrogant and sow the seeds of defeat.
There are many reasons behind the DPP's defeat. Apart from its generally poor performance, the DPP has been unwilling to cultivate local influence in Hualien. As a result, it was forced to nominate You, who was unwilling to run in the race. The party's campaign started out too late. The DPP used to be very good at propaganda campaigns, offering hope to voters and stoking voters' emotions. But there was no outstanding performance in the DPP's campaign in Hualien. All kinds of pork barrel policy announcements that would have been a waste on administrative resources, such as subsidies for Aboriginal leaders and free dentures for elderly citizens were not received well by voters. Instead, they triggered many arguments over policy vote-buying.
The DPP also elevated the status of the local election to the central-government level by getting various political stars to stump for You, thereby overshadowing him. The government not only failed in its anti-vote-buying drive, one of its major platforms, but also came under fire from Hualien's chief prosecutor Yang Ta-chih (楊大智) for launching round-the-clock roadside checks. On the eve of the election, a supporter of You was even accused of vote-buying after giving away bicycles. This destroyed the DPP's anti-vote-buying image. The DPP needs to reflect on all these mistakes.
Only three years into office, the DPP has already picked up many bad habits from the KMT's rule. The Hualien election is a wake-up call. The blue camp has also come to understand that unity is a prerequisite for victory. The political parties should humbly listen to the voice expressed by the people at the ballot box. Only then will they have a chance to swing the pendulum in their direction.
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