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What is the 'war on terror?'

REUTERS, WASHINGTON
Monday, Aug 04, 2003, Page 9

ILLUSTRATION: YU SHA

The US government's five-color terror alert system has become almost meaningless for many Americans, with the threat level stalled inexorably at yellow for elevated risk or orange for high.

"Great. We can either be panicked, or more panicked," said Stacy Lewis, a Virginia mother of two, in a typical reaction.

Months after the first-orange alert sent terrified Americans out to buy duct tape in February as protection against chemical attack and local governments began to bemoan the cost of extra security, experts say they see little or no chance of a lower alert level any time soon.

That will require years of success in fighting terror groups and huge improvements in domestic security, they said.

"I think for the foreseeable future, literally nothing can happen that can take us to green [the lowest risk]," said Michael O'Hanlon, an analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington and expert on security issues.

"In terms of getting to blue [guarded risk], there's obviously some arbitrariness, and some politics in all of this, but blue is not even on the radar screen."

For a lower alert, O'Hanlon said "You would need major improvements in homeland security, further neutralization of al-Qaeda with no sign that it is being reconstituted, and also a period of years during which there isn't an attack," such as bombings in Riyadh that killed 35 people, or in Casablanca that killed 44, both in May.

In other words, a lower alert would need a significant US victory in the "war on terror," declared after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, including the capture of Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, his deputy, but also much more, experts said.

On Tuesday, the Department of Homeland Security said it had warned the airline industry of possible suicide hijackings and bombings by al-Qaeda for the rest of the summer but said no change was anticipated in the alert level, which was yellow.

According to the Department of Homeland Security, which inaugurated the alert system in March 2002, "an Elevated [Orange] Condition is declared when there is a significant risk of terrorist attacks."

A blue alert would be declared only for a "general risk of terrorist attacks," it said. Green reflects a low risk. Red, the highest level, would be declared only if an attack on US soil were imminent or taking place, experts said.

WAR WITHOUT FRONTIER

Homeland Security chief Tom Ridge said in May that al-Qaeda was still the main danger, but threats could also come from other anti-US groups or "disgruntled individuals."

John Parachini, a terrorism expert at the Rand Corp, said the threat to the US was reduced by the removal of the Taliban government in Afghanistan, which had made that country a sanctuary for al-Qaeda.

Tightened security within the US since Sept. 11, has also helped, he said.

"Even since Sept. 12, our vigilance has greatly increased. Certainly here in the United States, we've closed many gaps in our system. However, many gaps still remain, and this is a long-term effort," Parachini said.

But like the "war on drugs," declared by then president Richard Nixon in 1971 and on which the US has spent hundreds of billions of dollars with no end in sight, the war on terror lacks a specific enemy or frontier.

And it would be even more difficult to declare won.

Some 10,000 to 70,000 people are said to have trained at al-Qaeda camps, and only a fraction have been killed or captured to date. Bin Laden and Taliban leader Mullah Omar have not been found.

In Iraq, months after US-led forces removed former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein in a pre-emptive strike justified partly by the "war on terror," many waging guerrilla attacks on US troops are Islamic fighters from other countries.

Analysts said this showed that an organized, anti-US Islamist movement remained a potent international force.

"One of the disconcerting things about the ongoing troubles in Iraq is the large number of `jihadists' from different countries who have flowed into Iraq, and essentially it's a place where people who have a long animosity to the United States want to go and fight the United States on what they perceive as Arab soil," Parachini said.

In the meantime, critics say the constant elevated alert has become meaningless and the added security it requires so expensive it could bankrupt strapped states and cities.

Financial analysts say the constant terror threat has hurt the US dollar on foreign exchange markets. Before the July 4 holiday weekend, some warned the currency could slip if the alert were raised again from yellow to orange.

Brian Roehrkasse, a spokesman for the Department of Homeland Security, said the department is trying to refine the alert system to target specific industries or areas.

"The National Homeland Security Advisory System is an evolving system that improves with each day," he said. "... At some point in time, we may actually see a blue or even a green, but we just don't have a sense of when that would be."
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