Extreme weather is making headlines. Record summer temperatures in Europe and a large number of heat-related deaths in India joined news about severe flooding in Bangladesh, China and Sri Lanka. And an unusual number of tornados in the US have been reported.
For its part, the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) suggests that global warming is linked to these events that have led to escalating death tolls and more wreckage. It also declared that extremes in weather and climate events are setting new records and the occurrence of such extremes has been rising in numbers.
But these reports raise as many questions as they are raising eyebrows. As the director of the WMO admitted, these results simply reflect that monitoring and communications of weather conditions is better than ever before. It turns out that the only certainty is that reporting of extremes is more common, even if the extremes are not.
As it is, little attention is paid to human-population patterns and how the vulnerability to extreme weather arises from how they change. Over the years, foreign aid and emergency-disaster relief encouraged the building of slums or suburban housing in flood plains. Similarly, air conditioning allows more people to live comfortably in areas subject to hurricanes and cyclones.
In its report, the WMO points to global averages for land and sea-surface temperatures in May being the second highest since records began in 1880. However, temperatures in the upper atmosphere were not reported. This is no slight oversight. For global warming to be truly global, atmospheric temperatures would also have to rising. But there is no evidence that air temperatures have risen to match the reports of rising ground temperatures.
Consider that surface temperatures have been increasingly recorded in urban areas or airports that have much more concrete and asphalt than they had even a few decades back. All other things remaining the same, it would be surprising if temperatures taken in such hot spots did not increase. Such alternative explanations tend to be ignored. And so it has become an article of faith that burning fossil fuels increases greenhouse gases (GHG) that lock in heat and cause global warming.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, scientific understanding of climate change remains quite unsettled. In particular, it is not clear that observed global warming trends are significant or relevant to the long-term survival of life on earth. Nor is it clear that attempts to reduce greenhouse gases will offset other factors that influence climate. Indeed, there is a strong correlation between sunspot activity and temperature variations.
In all events, GHGs are not the only possible source of warming trends and not necessarily the most important. Weather and climate patterns depend upon influences from oceans and other water systems, the variability of solar radiation, volcanic aerosols, greenhouse-gas emissions as well as clouds and water vapor, just to name a few.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considers at least 12 conditions that could change climate. Of these, only greenhouse gases have come under the close scrutiny of the scientific community. Uncertainty over the influence of the other conditions means that they could worsen the warming trend or reduce it or cancel it out completely.
A report released by the UN identified a 5km-thick "Asian brown cloud" that is blamed partly on greenhouse gases. However, an examination of the effects of this enormous blanket of haze found that it counteracts global warming by shading land areas that it covers. So, it turns out that sometimes GHGs can induce cooling.
This is not the only beneficial property of GHGs. It is also overlooked that carbon dioxide (CO2), one of the most infamous carbon-based GHGs, is actually plant food that is converted into oxygen. It is well known that higher amounts of CO2 allow plants to grow better and that would increase human food supplies.
Meanwhile, most economic analyses indicate that mandating reductions in greenhouse gases will cause significant harm that is known in exchange for uncertain benefits. Our incomplete understanding of the climate system raises questions over the effectiveness of local or regional responses to perceptions about global-climate change.
Since global-climate history reveals very wide fluctuations over the Earth's life, it is important to choose an appropriate time frame for reference to allow for reasonable comparisons. Most climate models used by the IPCC cover the last 1,000 years of climate variation. However, most of the data are estimates because surface temperature data have been recorded for only about 150 years. And weather-balloon readings have been collected for 30 years while satellite readings span less than 20 years.
It turns out that greenhouse politics reveal a tendency to exaggerate. Environmental activists use worst-case scenarios that reflect their own biases and make it easier to raise funds. And politicians find it is easier to impose new levies when guilt or uncertain risks associated with in catastrophe scenarios induce taxpayers to surrender more of their income.
While the perceptions of the general public are influenced by these biases, their rising incomes also lead to increased demand for higher environmental quality. Politicians and bureaucrats often respond by imposing stricter environmental regulations with violations receiving ever wider media coverage. In turn, there is a misperception that environmental quality is worsening when it may actually be improving or perhaps remain unchanged.
Even if global temperatures are rising, we do not really understand why. Neither do we know if nor how soon the worst-case scenarios might occur. Even their ultimate consequences remain uncertain.
Despite the supposed consensus on the issue of global warming, there are many unsettled scientific questions. In most human activities, due diligence is consider appropriate behavior. This standard should also be applied to questions relating to the environment, especially global warming when it is based upon such dubious evidence.
But let's say we do accept the global warming Cassandras. If their true aim is to move to cleaner energy sources that emit less carbon dioxide and other pollutants, then nuclear power should be put back on the table.
Christopher Lingle is a visiting research scholar at Hitotsubashi University and professor of economics at Universidad Francisco Marroqua in Guatemala.
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