When it comes to the question of China's future, two approaches have been developed, namely, the liberal and the realist. The question of whether economic development will make Chinese foreign policy more peaceful or more assertive also divides into these two theoretical camps. The liberal notion argues that the wealthier China becomes, the more its people will embrace democracy and demand change. Incorporating China into the world economy, therefore, will not only lead to inevitable change in China but will also do more to keep the world peaceful, stable and -- eventually -- democratic than any action by other nations could possibly do.
The liberal assumption may never be put to the test. The establishment of a liberal democracy in China is unlikely in the foreseeable future. The new leadership, led by President Hu Jintao (
At a ceremony for the Chinese Communist Party's anniversary on July 1, Hu did not initiate any discussion on democratic reform as some optimists expected. Instead, he reiterated the importance of abiding by his predecessor Jiang Zemin's (江澤民) "Three Represents." The move displayed no determination on Hu's part to bring about political reforms in China and he showed no concrete intent to pursue political liberalization.
Scholars have suggested that a "political incrementalism" might constitute the possible path of China's democratization. Nevertheless, gradual political reforms will face a great challenge if it does not come with more economic openness. As China becomes more incorporated into the world trade regime, economic interdependence may heighten rather than defuse political tensions between Beijing and the outside world. But dependence means vulnerability.
As a country that suffers from the "century of national humiliation" and is eager to regain its national pride of being a great nation, the Chinese leaders are naturally inclined to "control what they depend on [from abroad] or to lessen the extent of their dependency."
Today's rising China has to suffer the vulnerabilities of interdependence, but tomorrow's strong China will not. The more powerful China grows, the less it needs the aid and approval of the other major powers to get what it needs.
Realists would not expect prosperity to make China more peace-oriented. If the international behavior of states is strongly influenced by threats and opportunities that governments perceive in the international system, then China's growth from a weak, developing state to a stronger, more prosperous state should result in a more assertive foreign policy.
A growing economic base will increase chances for China to establish greater control over its environment. An economically stronger China will begin to act like a major power: bolder, more demanding, and less inclined to cooperate with the other major powers in the region.
Given that Beijing is already expanding its own political, military and economic influence, it is worth asking whether China understands all the responsibilities of being a "great power." The status of a "great power" is not determined by active expansion of military capability or in military threats against smaller countries.
Covering up the the spread of SARS and suppressing Taiwan's international presence are not what a mature democracy would do. Therefore, a continued clash of ideology and strategy between China and the rest of the world is expected when the world tries to accommodate China. A joint effort must be made by the international community to educate China to become a responsible power, instead of being an irrational power.
Liu Kuan-teh is a Taipei-based political commentator.
Saudi Arabian largesse is flooding Egypt’s cultural scene, but the reception is mixed. Some welcome new “cooperation” between two regional powerhouses, while others fear a hostile takeover by Riyadh. In Cairo, historically the cultural capital of the Arab world, Egyptian Minister of Culture Nevine al-Kilany recently hosted Saudi Arabian General Entertainment Authority chairman Turki al-Sheikh. The deep-pocketed al-Sheikh has emerged as a Medici-like patron for Egypt’s cultural elite, courted by Cairo’s top talent to produce a slew of forthcoming films. A new three-way agreement between al-Sheikh, Kilany and United Media Services — a multi-media conglomerate linked to state intelligence that owns much of
The US and other countries should take concrete steps to confront the threats from Beijing to avoid war, US Representative Mario Diaz-Balart said in an interview with Voice of America on March 13. The US should use “every diplomatic economic tool at our disposal to treat China as what it is... to avoid war,” Diaz-Balart said. Giving an example of what the US could do, he said that it has to be more aggressive in its military sales to Taiwan. Actions by cross-party US lawmakers in the past few years such as meeting with Taiwanese officials in Washington and Taipei, and
The Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan has no official diplomatic allies in the EU. With the exception of the Vatican, it has no official allies in Europe at all. This does not prevent the ROC — Taiwan — from having close relations with EU member states and other European countries. The exact nature of the relationship does bear revisiting, if only to clarify what is a very complicated and sensitive idea, the details of which leave considerable room for misunderstanding, misrepresentation and disagreement. Only this week, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) received members of the European Parliament’s Delegation for Relations
Denmark’s “one China” policy more and more resembles Beijing’s “one China” principle. At least, this is how things appear. In recent interactions with the Danish state, such as applying for residency permits, a Taiwanese’s nationality would be listed as “China.” That designation occurs for a Taiwanese student coming to Denmark or a Danish citizen arriving in Denmark with, for example, their Taiwanese partner. Details of this were published on Sunday in an article in the Danish daily Berlingske written by Alexander Sjoberg and Tobias Reinwald. The pretext for this new practice is that Denmark does not recognize Taiwan as a state under