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Editorial: Lack of support is not opposition

Has the US policy toward Taiwan changed? That is the question many asked after US President George W. Bush's meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) on the sidelines of the G8 meeting in Evian last weekend. Possibly to ease worry, only a few days later on June 5, American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Chairwoman Therese Shaheen held her first-ever press conference with members of the Taiwan media, during which she emphasized that there has been no change to the US' Taiwan policy whatsoever.

During the Evian meeting, Bush affirmed the American commitment toward the "one China" policy, the three Sino-US Communiques and a lack of support for Taiwan independence. Anyone who pays attention to the contents of the statement will realize that it is in no way different from the unwavering position of the US.

The primary reason for all the speculation was a slew of misleading reports emanating from Beijing and pro-unification media that Bush had openly stated "opposition" to Taiwan independence. Of course, anyone with enough common sense can see the less-than-subtle difference between "opposition" and "no support."

It was only last August that US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage educated the media during a press conference in Beijing about the difference between those two words, emphasizing that the US does not support Taiwan independence, but that doesn't mean the US opposes it.

It is impossible for Hu not to know this difference, since in response to Armitage's explanation Hu, then vice president, had personally lectured Armitage about the supposed threat Taiwan independence posed to peace and stability in Asia. The Chinese media and the pro-unification media that reported Bush's "opposition" to Taiwan independence either have a very short memory or are simply too lazy to check the dictionary.

Of course, in politics the timing of a statement, even if a statement with no new element whatsoever, can have important implications. It is no secret that Beijing has repeatedly pressured Bush without any success to openly state his opposition to Taiwan independence. Although still not succumbing, Bush's decision to at least voice lack of support demonstrated more of a warming toward Hu and Beijing rather than anything negative toward Taiwan.

Ruan Ming (阮銘), an advisor to former CCP secretary-general Zhao Ziyang (趙紫陽), has interpreted Bush's gesture as intent to show support for Hu's leadership in China, which still remains unconsolidated and shaky.

With chairman of the Central Military Commission Jiang Zemin (江澤民) still holding tightly onto the military power, Hu has some tough hurdles to jump over before substantive succession to power. On the other hand, the Chinese military's recent mishandling and concealment of SARS cases gave Hu and his supporters opportunities to attack Jiang's power.

This show of goodwill by Bush toward Hu will obviously help Hu's political stature both inside and outside China. In return, Hu may very well show much more cooperation with the US on issues such as the North Korean nuclear row, the reconstruction of Iraq and the war on terrorism.

One can hardly see what Taiwan has to lose from this gesture. In fact, the US-Taiwan relationship has never been better, as well demonstrated by the US' recent support for Taiwan's observer status at the World Health Organization (WHO) and opposition to downgrading Taiwan's status in the WTO.
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