The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak is causing considerable panic in Taiwan. The impact of such panic on society and the economy is also expanding by the day. Public attention is currently focused on the disease, but the administration must face up to the outbreak's impact on other aspects of society as well, including the economy, and adopt appropriate measures to minimize the negative impacts.
As of yesterday, Taiwan has reported 122 "suspected" SARS cases and 20 "probable" cases. In other words, the outbreak has not been serious -- an indication that epidemic control measures are bearing fruit.
But many Taiwanese still turn pale at the mention of SARS. People wearing masks can be seen at bus stops, shopping malls and even night clubs and irrational behavior is starting to take root. Educating the public and allaying collective fears are no doubt the most urgent tasks facing the government.
SARS has dealt a deadly blow to the tourism industry, cutting the number of Taiwanese tourists travelling abroad by 80 percent to 90 percent. The number of foreigners visiting Taiwan has also fallen by more than 50 percent. The fear factor has also reduced domestic tourism activities by 70 percent to 80 percent. According to estimates from the tourism industry, at least half of Taiwan's travel agencies may go bankrupt if the SARS situation does not improve. That may increase unemployment by between 20,000 and 30,000 people. Then there is the ripple effect on related industries, which includes the airline industry, the transportation industry, the hotel industry and the restaurant industry.
SARS is also having a major impact on trade and other international activities. Many exhibitions, international conferences and cross-strait exchanges have been canceled or postponed. The damage that will be done to Taiwan's economy, which heavily relies on foreign trade, is hard to estimate. Both international and domestic financial markets, already burdened with war worries, may also become unstable because of SARS.
The economic damage may be amplified if the outbreak is not quickly brought under control and if the public's fears persist. Consumption and business investment may fall drastically, bringing down economic growth by one or two percentage points. And even that may be a conservative assessment. The government needs to adopt more aggressive measures to buffer the economy. The affected industries should be given appropriate support and guidance.
Comprehensive public health and economic strategies are required to make an all-out effort to prevent the outbreak from becoming a festering sore. On the one hand, the administration should establish a testing, quarantine and medical treatment mechanism to keep the SARS situation firmly in control. On the other hand, it should aggressively strengthen education and psychological guidance of the public so as to avoid unnecessary panic.
The SARS outbreak has also provided an opportunity for clear and cool-headed reflection on economic relations between Taiwan and China. After resisting World Health Organization offers to help, China has now finally realized that international cooperation is inevitable in the fight against SARS. China's new Premier Wen Jiabao (
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, people have been asking if Taiwan is the next Ukraine. At a G7 meeting of national leaders in January, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned that Taiwan “could be the next Ukraine” if Chinese aggression is not checked. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that if Russia is not defeated, then “today, it’s Ukraine, tomorrow it can be Taiwan.” China does not like this rhetoric. Its diplomats ask people to stop saying “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” However, the rhetoric and stated ambition of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on Taiwan shows strong parallels with