There are those who think that this is precisely what might happen to Blair over Iraq. They foresee a short war, the rapid collapse of the Baathist regime, and a new beginning for Iraq's people. Blair will then have triumphed in almost the classical sense of that word. Along with Bush, he would be acclaimed as a great leader, while voices of dissent and opposition would be silenced. His re-election would hardly be an issue; on the contrary, those who opposed him will be in trouble.
However, other scenarios loom, not so much of defeat as of confusion and the impossibility of creating sustainable peace. But what is at stake in the Iraq debate is not so much a vision of the future as a moral principle. It really is a matter of conviction. Blair, at least, is pursuing his Iraq policy because he is deeply convinced that he is right. He will still retain that conviction even if he fails, although the price he will pay is certain to be high. Unlike Adenauer, Brandt and de Gaulle, Blair may really be going against the grain of his people rather than anticipating a changing general view.
Blair knows all this, which is why he has hinted more than once that he has put his political career and his position as prime minister on the line. He is a true conviction politician, inspired less by a sense of the future as by a sense of morality. Such leaders risk a great deal -- and not just for themselves. Perhaps they risk more than can be justified. In today's crisis, anyone who believes in Western values must hope that such politicians emerge victorious.
Ralf Dahrendorf, the author of numerous acclaimed books, is a member of the British House of Lords, a former rector of the London School of Economics and a former warden of St. Anthony's College, Oxford.
Copyright: Project Syndicate and Institute for Human Sciences
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