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Editorial: Partial-succession causes tension

As the US gets ready to kill Iraqis for freedom, and as uproar rages over North Koreas missile tests on the day of South Korea's presidential inauguration, changes occurred in the power structure of China. During the recently concluded meeting of the National People's Congress, Chinese President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) did not, as expected, hand over the post of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Military Commission chairman. This also means that Jiang will not be handing over the PRC Central Military Commission chairman's seat to the new CCP Secretary-General Hu Jiantao (胡錦濤) when Hu succeeds Jiang. Instead, Jiang will continue to control the military, thus serving as the real leader of China.

So long as Jiang does not resign from the CCP Central Military Commission chairman seat, he will continue to serve as the PRC Central Military Commission chairman, since China cannot possibly have two military command systems. The complicated situations in the international community had encouraged Jiang to stay in power.

This means that the fourth generation power succession of China is only half done. Hu may have taken over as the party secretary-general and is expected to take over the presidency this month, but he is after all a weak leader. Jiang is the one calling all the shots. Nothing counts until Jiang gives his nod of approval, irrespective of whether it involves military or national defense affairs, personnel matters within the Political Bureau, the appointment and removal of top officials in Shanghai and Beijing, the two top special municipalities, foreign affairs issues, anything related to Taiwan, or late-breaking crises.

Hu will still carefully play sidekick to Jiang, in which no challenge of Jiang's power is permitted. The fourth generation power succession exists in name only, because not only does Jiang controls a majority of the Political Bureau members, but he also rules the people with a figurative gun in his hand. In the future, Hu will have to walk a fine line, praying each day that he does not upset Jiang. Otherwise, he may end up like former president Hua Guofeng (華國鋒) and former CCP secretary general Zhao Ziyang (趙紫陽), who were purged.

It has only been three months since Hu took over the CCP secretary-general's office. His power machinery is spinning silently. In particular, he asked party officials to follow the revolutionary spirit of Mao Zedong (毛澤東) in leading a simple and thrifty life. Hu is also demonstrating respect to the Constitution and attaching importance to enactment of publication laws in an attempt to bring some order. All this shows that while Hu may still live under Jiang's shadow, he is nevertheless trying to establish his own leadership characteristics.

The delay in the leadership succession will increase the destabilizing factors in China. The tension between the Jiang and Hu camps will continue. Hu is already experiencing friction with Jiang's royal guard Zeng Qinghong (曾慶紅) who has already climbed up to the number two seat within the party. This friction will only escalate as a result of the incomplete power transfer. The model of such a power succession is typical in totalitarian countries, indicating that while China may be undergoing economic reforms and liberalization, or even heading toward the path of capitalism, giving some western countries wishful illusion about China. In reality, China is still in essence a genuine totalitarian country.
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