DPP should expect Lien to lead pan-blue ticket

The prospect of a KMT-PFP coalition in the upcoming presidential election has become a subject of heated debate. The KMT's open apology to clear up the Chung Hsing Bills Finance scandal has created a better mood for cooperation between the two parties.

But, whether it is possible for KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) to team up will influence the evolution of our government and the political scene. A "Lien-Soong ticket," or a "Soong-Lien ticket," or any other kind of possible coalition will continue to be an eye-catching subject in Taiwanese politics after the Lunar New Year.

In fact, Soong, according to the number of votes he received in the 2000 presidential election, should stand a better chance of qualifying as a presidential candidate than Lien. On the whole, the political strength of the PFP, unfortunately, still cannot match that of the KMT. The pan-blue camp, therefore, is still unable to take Soong as the best presidential candidate. No wonder former Control Yuan president Wang Tso-yung (王作榮), who has continuously advocated a Lien-Soong ticket, believes that Soong will play a supporting role at best.

The KMT has showed determination to reorganize and rebuild the party after losing power. Although the party's image is not as good as the PFP's, the KMT has some advantages, such as its number of seats in the Legislative Yuan, political resources and party assets. Therefore, the KMT has been able to secure its position in Taiwan's political arena and retain its influence to contend with the DPP.

The majority of Taiwanese still believe that the KMT stands a better chance of defeating the DPP and regaining power than the PFP. This is the key to why Lien, after he lost in the past presidential election, has continued to be recognized by everyone as a popular presidential candidate. Lien is perhaps not as talented and intelligent as Soong, but Lien is generally acknowledged by outsiders as a leadership figure. Compared to Soong, who is good at political maneuvering, Lien appears to be better equipped with presidential manners.

Lien in the past presidential election mainly because of the "dump Lien to save Soong" strategic voting by the anti-Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) camp. He lost the election not because Soong's public opinion support was many times more than his. Nor did he lose the election because of the slogan of "dump Lien to save Chen" by then president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝).

Therefore, if the KMT and PFP leaders can get a clear understanding of why they lost in the presidential election, there should not be any problem for the pan-blue camp to unanimously nominate a set of presidential and vice-presidential candidates. The Lien-Soong pair is a political coalition which will emerge in its own time to challenge Chen. There is absolutely no need for the KMT to rely on public opinion polls to designate Lien or Soong as the presidential or vice-presidential candidate.

If a Lien-Soong ticket does not emerge, or the KMT and PFP are unable to successfully build a coalition, everyone knows that there will be no one to contend with Chen in the 2004 presidential election. Therefore, we still believe that a Lien-Soong pair is inevitable. Only a Lien-Soong ticket can defeat Chen and regain power. With regard to the apology for the Chung Hsing Bills Finance scandal, the KMT has already made great strides to team up with Soong.

As a result, Chen's overall strategy for re-election must focus on winning more than half of the votes. Chen should not expect to benefit from the failures of a KMT-PFP coalition or a Lien-Soong ticket. In the game of political maneuvering, the DPP should not care about the political uproar surrounding whether Lien and Soong will team up. Instead, the DPP should take the opportunity to stabilize the foundation of Taiwan's economic development in order to demonstrate that the hateful, political conflict between Lien and Soong is the source of political instability. Even if Lien and Soong build a coalition, there is no guarantee that they will defeat Chen.

Chen Sung-shan is a member of the Civil Service Protection and Training Commission at the Examination Yuan.

Translated by Grace Shaw