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A Chinese federation is highly unlikely

In his new book, entitled The Emergence of the United States of Chunghwa (中華聯邦), Japanese scholar Kenichi Ohmae (大前研一) boldly predicts, on the basis of the economic integration taking place between Taiwan and China, that the two countries will unify under a federal system in 2005. In his opinion, the integrated Chinese federation will be Taiwan's only option, and Taiwan will be left with nothing if it passes up the opportunity!

But, leaving aside the fact that Taiwan's democratic political system is fundamentally different from China's autocratic system, the gap in national income between the two sides of the strait has highlighted the precipitateness and practical unlikelihood of the unification prediction.

Ohmae's presumption of political integration developing from regional economic cooperation evidently involved a giant intellectual leap. His argument relies on the economic perspective and includes no political or social analysis. He is overly optimistic about economics but ignores politics. I wish to present here my rebuttal of his prediction.

First, political democracy and social justice are just as important as economic factors to national development. Indeed, China continues to maintain a high economic growth rate. But the extreme imbalance described by Ohmae -- between China's six highly developed areas on the one hand and the interior on the other -- are cause for grave concern. As he says, many exploited workers are actually behind the high economic growth.

Perhaps he thinks that boosting the economy by exploiting the workers is not morally questionable, or that China's centralized power structure is still capable of controlling industrial action. But as authoritarian rule in China weakens, the uncertainties caused by unbalanced development may become the most significant variable, a possibility Ohmae ignores, intentionally or otherwise. But it is this variable that is key to his optimistic evaluation, making his federation prediction nothing more than a castle in the air.

Next, European integration is perhaps the most successful example of regional integration. European countries have gradually moved towards political integration founded on a process of economic integration conducted over the past 50 years.

But this integration has occurred with the consent of sovereign European states. Referendums were held in each of the states before almost every important treaty was passed. Britain and Denmark have refused to join the single European currency, the Euro, in order to maintain their monetary sovereignty.

State sovereignty may be affected by the tides of globalization, but it will never disappear. Ohmae's prediction shows that his understanding of international politics is extremely subjective.

Finally, politics have always been a major element of the cross-strait issue. By hastening cross-strait business integration, China's enthusiastic encouragement of Taiwanese businesses to invest there is an attempt to expand the room for maneuvering of its Taiwan policy, and to reduce the island's political autonomy.

This two-faced tactic of using business to contain the government highlights all too clearly the goal of China's economic strategy against Taiwan. Ohmae has completely ignored China's political machinations in his interpretation in exclusively economic terms of the complex cross-strait relationship. His simple conclusion is no help to the current deadlock.

Political integration between Taiwan and China must be based on the principle of equal sovereignty. That being so, the final decision on Taiwan's status rests solely with the nation's 23 million people. It will not be determined by Beijing, much less by a groundless prediction.

Chen Chi-mai is a DPP legislator.

TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
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