To the sound of the countdown on New Year's Eve across the country, Taiwan bid farewell to 2002. It was a year that brought a mixture of troubles, chaos, hopes, crisis and change. Having left the past year and in welcoming the arrival of a new year, is a moment that is ripe for re-examining the past, looking forward to the future, inspiring and encouraging ourselves and identifying goals and meaning in our lives. In short, it is a new beginning.
Just over a year ago, as we bade farewell to 2001, we were still under the shadows of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the US and were grappling with the fact that the once thriving and promising Internet industry had turned to bubbles. While in 2002, international security and the global economy can hardly be said to have fully recovered, it can at least be said that the darkest time is over. Everything seems to be rising from rock bottom. As for Taiwan, last year's economy was an improvement on the previous year's.
The first three quarters respectively showed 1.2 percent, 3.9 percent and 4.77 percent growth. Economic growth for the whole of last year is projected at around 3.27 percent. In comparison with the negative growth of the previous year, things have truly improved. While it is hard to see any strong signs of economic revival this year, it is not likely that things will further deteriorate either.
This economic progress report, however, is obviously not enough to make people happy.
This is because, the economic downturn at home in 2001 was due primarily to the impact on Taiwan of the international economy. For the same reason, the economic growth of last year was due primarily to improvements in the international economy, rather than to public policy. Still, the economy seems to be on a rebound, having been on a green light for the past eight months.
Unemployment remains very high by Taiwan standards. The unemployment rate reached 5.22 percent in November, putting the unemployed population at about 500,000.
The increase in unemployment results not only in the impoverishment of many individuals, but also in declines in consumption and in industrial production, a rise in inflation and a depreciation in the value of personal wealth. So, despite the economic growth of last year, more people are becoming financially impoverished, which is creating more social problems. The level of dissatisfaction with the country's leader is naturally rising rapidly.
`taiwan first'
The unemployment problem is not unlike a bomb hidden in the dark corners of society. If it is not removed in good time, it will endanger social stability and public security.
The reality is that a quick look at the unemployment problem indicates that it is a negative by-product of the government's misguided cross-strait policy, a side effect of the government's policy of opening up toward China.
The massive outflow of capital, companies and highly skilled personnel from Taiwan to China has created several million job opportunities in China, but reduced job opportunities in Taiwan. Not only this, but China-bound businesses have become the biggest threat to the survival of businesses planning to stay in Taiwan.
This is the crux of Taiwan's inability to revive the economy in recent years. Because Taiwan's economy is shifting quickly toward China, it is facing a dual"sinicization" and "marginalization" crisis. The "Taiwan first" ideology and the country's sovereignty face serious challenges.
Vice President Annette Lu (
Why haven't the relevant government bodies conducted a comprehensive study whether direct links is speeding up the relocation of home industries to China, Lu asked.
Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen (
Qian clearly said that his goal is to create a situation in which neither side can survive without the other. So, if the Taiwan government wants to revive the economy, besides improving the investment environment at home, whether it can say "no" to Taiwanese businessmen demanding more liberalization and direct links will be key.
strait stability
A stable cross-strait relationship is of course urgently needed, for the sake of both Taiwan's economy and its government. But reforms of the judiciary, the banking system and party politics at home could completely restructure Taiwan, turning it into a country with well-planned and upright systems capable of delivering social justice.
Frankly, in recent years, our leaders have been full of good intentions to reform, but they have not drafted concise enough plans or taken strong enough action. As a result, many reform efforts have been less than successful.
The vote-buying scandal in the Taipei and Kaohsiung city council elections has created further upheaval. Not only did several councilors come under investigation during the election campaigns, but the subsequent election of the council speaker in Kaohsiung also turned into a vote-buying scandal. The ties between politics and "black gold" in Taiwan are truly extraordinary.
Judicial reform
Statistics show that in 1994 a total of 23 council speakers and deputy speakers in 14 cities and counties were prosecuted on vote-buying charges. But, eight years later, only 10 people have received a verdict. The remaining 13 individuals -- more than half of those prosecuted initially -- have not. Among the 13 are councilors who have completed one, or even two, terms as speaker. This inefficiency has cost the judiciary the general public's faith in the judicial system.
After the recent election of the speaker and deputy speaker of Kaohsiung City Council, prosecutors and investigators were fully mobilized to investigate the case, demonstrating the government's determination to eradicate "black gold." The case is destined to become a major indicator of the government's success or failure in judicial reforms.
A major roadblock in efforts to revive the economy is the tendency of the ruling and opposition parties to bicker. Even the bills that will help improve the lives of ordinary citizens and foster economic development cannot escape being voted down. Social and political stability are required for economic revival. But, the ruling and opposition camps seem unable to leave aside their ideological differences and divergent national identities and seek common ground from which cooperation can be cultivated.
They in fact choose to intensify the extent to which they are polarized and the animosity between them, creating unrest as they do so. This is certainly not in the interests of the people of this country. The past is behind us. In the coming year, Taiwan must do even better.
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