On the eve of the showdown between the ruling New Millennium Democracy Party's (NMDP) candidate Roh Moo-hyun and the candidate from the conservative One Nation Party, Lee Hoi Chang, in the recent presidential election in South Korea, Chung Mong-joon, leader of the National Unity 21 party, suddenly announced the withdrawal of his support for Roh. In the end, Roh just scraped by and defeated Lee with a margin of less than 3 percentage points.
Commentators in both Taiwan and abroad stress that Roh's strong advocacy of reform won him the support of young voters to defeat the traditional Lee, who emphasized stability. People in Taiwan have gone so far as to compare Roh to President Chen Shui-bian (
If we analyze this election from the perspectives of "reform" and "stability," two of Roh's qualities are that he places importance on political reform and that he will continue the "sunshine policy." But doesn't this apply also to Lee?
Lee's pursuit of a general policy direction, political restructuring and national security also takes care of both reform and stability. Precisely because of the similarities between the two men on domestic issues, voters based their decision on consideration of international factors. Roh's and Lee's North Korean and US policies were diametrically opposed to each other. Roh's victory highlights the fact that "the people of South Korea are hoping for an end to the Korean War framework." Because the foreign policies proposed by Roh are to guarantee the independence and sovereignty of South Korea, Chung's sudden withdrawal from political cooperation only had a limited effect on the overall electoral climate.
South Korea's political and economic achievements over recent years and the North Korean nuclear arms crisis have pushed the people of South Korea to the consensus that "the Pan-Korean Republic has become a medium-sized strong power that no longer is an appendix to the US." They demand that the security relationship with the US should be built on a foundation of true equality.
They also hope for a continuation of Kim Dae-jung's direct negotiations with North Korea. As Roh said during a televised pre-election debate, "I will not kowtow blindly to the US." The tone of this remark reflects the wish of the South Korean people that their country be more active and confident when handling problems on the Korean peninsula. The era in which the US single-handedly controlled the situation in the Northeast Asian region is over. The agreements on the status of US troops stationed in South Korea are sure to be revised before long.
It is believed that Roh will invite China to play a more active role in adjusting the power balance between the two Koreas. Japan has begun to worry over future developments in the region and that future coordination between South Korea, the US and Japan will become more difficult since South Korea decisively has rejected participation in US-led missile plans.
Apart from the possibility of discussing resumption of air transport links between South Korea and Taiwan, the changes in the balance of power in Asia means that there is in fact limited room for upgrading the political relationship. Indeed, Taiwan has to develop a set of feasible countermeasures as soon as possible to guarantee its interests in the process of alliance-building and interaction between those nations.
Henry Liao is a former associate researcher at the DPP's department of international affairs.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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