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Taiwan is firmly in China's sights

During the recent meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) 16th National Congress, an order was issued for the new Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) to follow his predecessor Jiang Zemin's (江澤民) path in executing a political and economic campaign against Taiwan and Southeast Asia.

Jiang has apparently successfully integrated the factions within his party in putting together a list of core figures for the Politburo. Hu is the secretary-general of the party and the president of the country. Wen Jiabao (溫家寶) may become the next premier, Wu Bangguo (吳邦國) the chairman of the National People's Congress and Zeng Qinghong (曾慶紅) the secretary of the party. The chessboard has been set for the power game in Beijing. Jiang has been re-elected the chairman of the Central Military Commission and Hu the vice chairman. The three supreme powers -- party, government and military powers -- are all within Jiang's grip. Twentieth century totalitarianism under which strongman leaders never died again appears in the global village of the 21st century.

China's strategy for the new post-cold war power game in international relations has been set. It goes as follows: Political power in China will remain unchanged, while the same cannot be said about Taiwan and Northeast Asia. In China, the power of one-party autocracy is concentrated in the hands of Jiang. From the amendment of the CCP's party charter to incorporate Jiang's "three represents," one gets a glimpse of the whole picture.

The so-called "three represents" theorize that the CCP is the vanguard of the Chinese working class, and at the same time the vanguard of the Chinese people and ethnic Chinese, as well as the leader of the socialist campaign with Chinese characteristics. Together, the CCP, which is the class-struggle vanguard of the working class, and the pan blue and the pro-China Taiwanese businesses will work together to extend the reach of the CCP's clout, to crack down on the Taiwan independence movement and to become the hegemon of Asia.

The 16th National Congress again declared to, and showed, the world the CCP's plot to rule the planet. Jiang is the helmsman of China's ambition. This is how the resolution to amend the CCP charter should be interpreted and read.

A seemingly peaceful and inspired 16th National Congress resolution exposed the ambition of the CCP to "communize" the world. This is a major blow to the US and European countries, which hope to help the PRC evolve into a democracy through economic development. Will this cause them to change their economic strategies concerning the PRC? Can they prevent the PRC from modernizing and strengthening its military through economic development or from reviving communism? The 16th National Congress not only reinforced the totalitarian nature of the CCP, but developed strategies through which the CCP will seek to conquer the world.

The 16th National Congress neither drafted blueprints for the development of the country, nor took care of the crisis created by the current cultural lag of the PRC. The meeting did not address the problems created by financial and economic reforms, the unemployment or rampant political corruption. Rather, it focused on strengthening the hawkish nature of the CCP regime.

Participants of the meeting conspired to help the one-party autocracy of the CCP through political and economic struggles, and through manipulations of workers, capitalists, businessmen, the pro-unification faction of Taiwan and overseas ethnic Chinese. Taiwan is the first target of the conspiracy, and then Southeast Asian countries with Northeast Asian countries next in line.

The 16th National Congress did not deal with the political, economic and human right problems created during Jiang's leadership in the past 13 years. Nor did the committee touch upon the social problems created by the cultural lag and excessive and speedy economic development in the absence of supplemental political and social developments. The US$40 billion deficit of the country, the 30 million hidden unemployed population, the serious wealth gap, the near 200 million jobless farmers and higher level of bad loans did not receive any attention either.

The economic development of the PRC has reached a stage of serious crisis. Yet Jiang remains unable to see these emerging crises, which could be fatal to the country.

On the surface, the CCP appears to have had a complete power succession. However, both the amendment to its party charter and the personnel arrangements suggest that Jiang is still the power behind the throne. The CCP remains an undemocratic regime with a hidden and ambitious agenda. In the traditions of the CCP, the power succession may appeared to have been completed in an orderly and systematic fashion. But, in reality, the process was riddled with totalitarian and nationalistic characteristics. The CCP did not show the slightest sincerity about transforming into a democratic party. Jiang continues to control the military, while Hu is nothing but his sidekick. Hu's government may be comprised of technocrats, but this is nothing but a sugar coating for totalitarian communism.

Hu has indeed received a hot potato. His past performance indicates that his regime will be nothing but a puppet in the hands of Jiang. Can he ease the corruption problems in a legal and systematic manner? Can he take care of the non-performing bank loans? What about the wealth gaps and the cultural lags? How about the unemployment problems? The answer is unlikely to be "yes." If social unrest or public resentment is triggered as a result of his inability to deal with these problems, he can only rely on the military, which is under Jiang's control, to calm things down. On the other hand, his regime may seek to divert popular outrage by invading Taiwan.

In March next year Hu will officially take over the presidency. The economic campaign against Taiwan will continue to be the focus of his policy implementation. He will follow the path of Jiang and the "three represents" in leading a new generation of "red guards," including the pro-China Taiwanese businessmen and the pan-blue camp, to wage an economic campaign against Taiwan, vacuuming out Taiwan's capital and technology. They will seek to compel President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) to accept the "one country, two systems" model and to accept colonization of Taiwan. If Lien Chan (連戰), James Soong (宋楚瑜) or Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) think that they will get the chief executive seat as a reward for their good work, they couldn't be more wrong. Much to their chagrin, I personally predict that the CCP will probably still prefer Chen.

Once Taiwan is "colonized" under the "one country, two systems" model, Southeast Asian and Northeast Asian countries will be the next targets of China's economic and cultural campaigns. The international sea and air links in the Taiwan Strait will become domestic links of China. Through control over these links, China will control the economic development of the other countries in the region. The production competitiveness of these countries will also come under Chinese control. Many signs of these future developments are beginning to surface.

In the past decade, the industrialized powers of Europe and America have worked hard to turn the Chinese coastal region into a manufacturing base for labor-intensive industries of the world. Can their hard work turn China onto a path of democratization? I personally believe that Hu's open declaration that he will follow the precedence of Jiang suggests that the possibility of China becoming democratized in the next 10 years is very thin. It will probably take another 50 years.

This means that Europe and America may in fact be helping China to become a regional hegemon and increasing the likelihood of Taiwan being colonized under the "one country, two systems" model. The 16th National Congress of CCP has sounded the death knell to Western plans. However, at their behest, Taiwan and Hong Kong have already pumped US$270 billion into China, severely weakening their own competitiveness. We have already paid a high price to help the economic development of China. All the social problems, political struggles, economic decline and ethnic conflicts within Taiwan will incite further internal unrest. This will give China an excuse to attack Taiwan.

Backed by its legislative majority, the pan-blue camp of Taiwan is following the CCP charter in waging a campaign to bring down President Chen and paralyze his government. The people of Taiwan must realize what is taking place and say "no" to what they are doing.

Lee Chang-kuei is the president of the Taipei Times and a professor emeritus at the National Taiwan University.
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