There were no big surprises in the leadership changes made at the Chinese Communist Party's 16th National Congress. One slight surprise was the increase in the number of Politburo standing committee members from seven to nine. Another was President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) retaining his position as chairman of the Central Military Commission. These arrangements may have been part of the original plan, but that would seem unlikely.
The party's charter states that the national congress may make decisions on major issues. In practice, however, the party's supreme powers are in the hands of its general secretary and the members of the Politburo's standing committee. The rest of the Politburo, the central committee and the congress are all puppets. One characteristic of authoritarian regimes, of course, is that they do not have to be democratically elected. The 16th National Con-gress has once again highlighted this point. A look at the Politburo's standing committee members should provide evidence enough of the party's power arrangements.
The standing committee mem-bers of the 16th Politburo are (in ranking order): Hu Jintao (胡錦濤), Wu Bangguo (吳邦國), Wen Jiabao (溫家寶), Jia Qinglin (賈慶林), Zeng Qinghong (曾慶紅), Huang Ju (黃菊), Wu Guanzheng (吳官正), Li Chang-chun (李長春) and Luo Gan (羅幹).
Of these, Wu Bangguo, Jia, Zeng, Huang and Li are Jiang's people, although Li's relations with Jiang are not as close as the other four's. But Luo will take refuge in Jiang's "Shanghai Gang" after losing his overlord Li Peng (李鵬). This ensures that the committee will carry out Jiang's wishes.
The surprise here is that on Oct. 22, while visiting the US, Jiang announced the transfer of Jia and Huang to the central government. But why didn't he also announce the transfers of Wu Guanzheng and Li then? It appears that the latter were promoted in a bid to strike something of a balance after wrangling occurred among the incumbent standing committee members. But that didn't change the big picture in which Jiang controls the standing committee.
From the name list, we can be quite sure about the division of responsibilities. Hu will be president; Wu Bangguo will chair the standing committee of the Na-tional People's Congress; Wen will be premier; Jia will chair the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference; Zeng will handle party affairs and Wu Guanzheng will be secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.
The following are less certain -- Huang may handle the propaganda department; Li may be standing vice premier; Luo may remain secretary of the Central Commission of Political Science and Law. Who will take charge of foreign relations and Taiwan affairs? Possibly Zeng.
If the Politburo's Wu Yi (
As for Jiang maintaining the chairmanship of the party's Central Military Commission, that has nothing to do with the question of whether he will step down as chairman of the country's Central Military Commission next March. Deng Xiaoping (
We can only say that Jiang will hang on to whatever he can. He will emulate Deng and try to buy a double insurance policy by "leading the party with a gun" and "calling the shots from behind the curtain." He won't be willing to keep up with the times, much less renounce the iniquitous habit of leading the party with sheer military power. Certainly, however, Jiang, who attaches great importance to fame and reputation, may still give up his military post later if the external response is unfavorable.
Jiang has probably been unwilling to relinquish his military position because he does not trust the Politburo's standing committee members enough. Jiang's top henchman, Zeng, was not very enthusiastic about Jiang's desire to remain in power. Jiang's son, Jiang Mianheng (江綿恆), was initially expected to be a young dark horse, but that did not transpire either. Education minister and Central Committee member Chen Zhili (陳至立), a political diva who has a special relationship with Jiang, also failed to make it to the Politburo despite the universal acclaim in which he is held. Huang Liman (黃麗滿), party secretary of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, only gained an alternate member's position on the Central Committee.
These setbacks were obviously because Zeng, who handled the personnel arrangements, did not push very hard. As a result, holding on to military power may have become a necessity for Jiang. He has been able to control the overall situation in the power transition this time, primarily because he held military power. He could even have issued military threats to whip the other factions into line.
Besides, installing the corrupt Jia and Huang as standing committee members of the Politburo is a good way to hamper the anti-corruption drive. Jiang needs to do that if he is to safeguard the interests of the corrupt clique he heads. Naturally, military and verbal threats against Taiwan will also have to continue in order to divert attention from corruption at home.
Paul Lin is a political commentator based in New York.
Translated by Francis Huang
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