Foreigners are security
The latest spotting of Chinese ships off the coast of Orchid Island is just the latest military criterion to offset relations in the Taiwan Strait in more than half a century. Strangely enough though, after 18 months of worldwide terrorism, political chaos and economic uncertainty, this region of the world remains militarily unchanged.
There are many reasons why Taiwan and China have left war off the table. Some historians point to the belief that the differences in their political systems are not that important and that there is no reason why two great nations should go to war as a result and engage the rest of the world in the process.
Other observers highlight the enormous trade currently existing between China and Taiwan and that any attack by Beijing, for whatever reason, would lead both economies to suffer such great casualties not worth a victory to either side.
Others indulge the reality that China refuses to attack the island because its forces are not capable of defeating the forces of Taiwan and its allies.
Furthermore, any attempt to do so would just lower the global opinion of China and the communists are not willing to take that chance.
A final notion involves the ideal of nationalism and that despite what the population of Taiwan holds dear, the Chinese still consider the "enemy" [Taiwan] to be part of the Chinese territory and there is no reason for one country to attack its own land.
While all these theories certainly contain merit, there is actually one reason more valid than all the rest as to why China has left Taiwan off its "to nuke" list and will continue to for some time.
A recent census has estimated that more than 35,000 foreigners currently reside in Taipei and that the whole of Taiwan annually has more than 120,000 foreigners.
I do not doubt that Chinese ICBM's and other nuclear weaponry are capable of destroying a city the size of Taipei, as well as causing other significant casualties to an island the combined size of Maryland and Delaware.
But even if Taiwanese lives are of little importance in the pursuits of the People's Liberation Army, does China really want to kill so many innocent foreigners? Would other countries accept this fact and just move on?
Would America accept the demise of 7,000 foreigners in Taipei after launching a war on terrorism when 3,100 died on Sept. 11?
Severance of diplomatic contacts, travel, military exchanges and economic cooperation with China by nations with large numbers of its citizens in Taiwan would be the least of the communists fears should they incite a nuclear winter on the island.
China must realize that Taiwan is a popular site for foreigners, such as I, from the world over and military threats jeopardize their lives, as well as those of the native-born who seek independence.
China may argue that it would allow all foreigners to leave Taiwan prior to an attempted invasion but what kind of military strategy would that be?
Notifying Taiwan of a planned invasion would guarantee China's defeat, as it gives Taiwan the opportunity to prepare its defenses and rally support from other nations.
Therefore, China is right not to attack Taiwan under any conditions.
Not only the lives of the native-born Taiwanese, but those of foreigners periodically living in Taiwan, are too heavy a price for China to pay should Formosa become the site of offensive military exercises.
Geoff Merrill
Taipei
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