Pressure from all sides on links

Bickering between the ruling and opposition parties regarding direct links, particularly the aviation link, has been intensifying gradually since the Cabinet passed the draft amendment to the Statute Governing the Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area (兩岸人民關係條例) and submitted it to the legislature for review.

The KMT is critical of this official version for not responding to public expectations of relaxed cross-strait policies. It says that part of the text contains harsher restrictions on cross-strait contacts than does the current text. The KMT's legislative caucus plans to complete a "direct aviation link clause" before the third reading and amendment of the law late next month.

Officials in the Mainland Affairs Council say the text is capable of resolving the direct links issue. They are also saying that the current text is easier to implement, and that direct links do not hinge on a revision of the text, but rather makes it easier for cross-strait dialogue to resume.

In fact, the extent of the amendments in the Cabinet's draft is fairly sizable. In particular, the definition of China policies has changed from "control is the principle, permission the exception" to "permission is the principle, control when necessary." All regulations regarding Taiwanese traveling to China for work, cross-strait trade and cultural and educational exchanges as well as for Chinese people visiting Taiwan to see relatives have been relaxed. A flexible two-channel mechanism for cross-strait negotiations is adopted and the authority in charge can directly authorize several public interest organizations to "assist" negotiations. Under the statute, the Straits Exchange Foundation is thus no longer the only channel for negotiations.

Repeatedly making it clear that they are starting out from the status of China policies and cross-strait exchanges and negotiations, the Cabinet is indeed meeting public demands and is drafting more reform-minded and flexible laws and standards to reflect social change. It has also avoided increasingly stricter controls, something over which the KMT has expressed concern. The KMT's real concern is liberalizing the direct aviation links clause.

According to reports from a well-informed source in Beijing, China will implement suitable adjustments to it's Taiwan policies following the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) 16th National Con-gress, adopting a more pragmatic and active line. It will make direct links the target for observation in the short term and also expand economic and other exchanges and cooperation with Taiwan. The source also says that President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) "one country on each side of the Tai-wan Strait" statement has had a detrimental effect on the cross-strait relationship, but that the cross-strait framework remains the same. China's Taiwan system is still working hard to create a breakthrough in policies, and moving forward on the direct links issue is their main concern.

If this well-informed source is correct, doesn't it imply that China is already tending to adjust its Taiwan strategy toward becoming more pragmatic and flexible, and that they believe the time is ripe for attacking Taiwan both domestically and internationally in order to force Taipei to accept direct links negotiations under the "one China" framework?

It's worth mulling over the fact that Taiwan all along has said that people inside the CCP won't be very interested in Taiwan or other international issues at a time when a leadership change is about to take place. A resumption of cross-strait talks is probably not possible in the short term. The CCP's thinking about Taiwan is probably directed toward the question of who will win the 2004 presidential election.

This well-informed source, however, overturns Taiwan's normal evaluations and prognoses, and it seems the moment for negotiating direct links is already here, and that the time is getting closer for the two sides to resume cross-strait dialogue.

In fact, from Chen's "one country on each side of the Strait" speech to Taiwan's opening of a trade office in Mongolia, to first lady Wu Shu-chen's (吳淑珍) visit to the US, the CCP seems to deliberately have tried to overcome and repress any possible internal reactions and minimize the occurrence of emotional unification tricks such as written attacks or armed threats aimed at Taiwan. This shows that the Beijing auth-orities already are more able than before to understand and grasp mainstream public opinion in Taiwan and even that they better understand how to use more delicate tactics in response to rapidly changing developments in the cross-strait relationship. They are gradually beginning to understand how to manipulate public opinion in Taiwan and opposition parties according to the situation in order to influence the direction of Taiwan's China policies.

The question of direct links then becomes the key issue, an issue that is most difficult for the Taiwanese authorities to solve, with pressures coming from all sides. If the CCP maintains a prag-matic approach and skillfully manipulates the Taiwanese public and opposition parties, that would create pressures that Taipei would be unable to resist.

The questions of a resumption of cross-strait talks are questions of attitude and thinking of the governments on both sides of the Strait and not a question of whether or not the aviation clause in the Statute Governing the Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area should be amended.

The KMT wants to speed up the amendment of the aviation clause and the CCP seems to want to use the opposition parties to initiate legislation based on the aviation clause to pressure Taipei to speed up direct links negotiations. How should Taiwan res-pond to such a political attack from both within and without? How should it, given national security concerns, speed up negotiations regarding direct links and cross-strait exchange developments? This takes not only political wisdom, but also new strategic thinking regarding the nation's overall development.

Chen Sung-shan is a member of the Civil Service Protection and Training Commission at the Examination Yuan.

Translated by Perry Svensson