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The use and abuse of negative campaigns

With less than two months to go, the Taipei mayoral election has finally heated up as the challenger Lee Ying-yuan (李應元) launched a negative campaign against incumbent Mayor Ma Ying-jeou's (馬英九) failure to tackle the sex industry in the city. Lee's initial strategy of playing a "gentlemen's game" with Ma failed in terms of narrowing the gap between him and Ma.

The application of both positive and negative campaigning has become a general trend in Taiwan's elections in the last decade. The emphasis on the independence-unification dichotomy used to be an instrument of sabotage. Just one day before the previous presidential election, the KMT painted a picture implying that electing Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) president is equivalent to the outbreak of war between two sides of the Strait. The implication failed to make an impact

But negative campaigns did successfully help the DPP win last year's legislative election. In one of the most controversial TV ads, the DPP portrayed the opposition as nothing but the main obstructer in passing social welfare bills. The effect of negative campaign varied among the various constituencies.

As voters, especially urban voters, gradually showed a dislike for defamation, candidates have alternated in their control of the political battlefield through both positive and negative campaigns. More and more urban voters have reasoned that a spot on one's record or a character flaw does not necessarily nullify every aspect of a candidate.

Similarly, voters are much more wary of negative information about a candidate's position on certain issues. The vast amount of information and data poured over them via television and Internet media each day has made them more savvy in assessing attacks against a politician.

For negative a campaign to work, politicians rely on voters to be simple people who can be brought to a fever pitch in 30 seconds. But increasing voter awareness of both the variability of individual personalities and the intricacies of issues make negative messages a harder sell than ever.

For example, Lee has been attacking Ma for allowing the sex industry to return to the city. This message implies that Ma lacks the guts to crack down on the underground sex industry. But the city government responded by upholding the right of survival for legitimate businesses.

What Lee should have pointed out was the likely impact of the rebirth of the sex industry on families and communities, and most importantly, the potential crimes that would arise. That's what voters really care about.

Negative messages are sometimes used as tactical weapons to gain an advantage. But most of the time, a negative approach will only work once one has presented an alternative. While telling people how undetermined Ma is in the face of the deterioration of the city's image due to the sex industry, Lee also should offer concrete plans on how to fight the problems related to the sex industry.

Taipei City has the most unique electoral structure in Taiwan. With the most middle-class and independent voters, the mayoral election has always been candidate-oriented and policy-oriented. Any pointless arguments on issues such as national identity and personal image are incapable of broadening the support base of the electorate of Taipei.

Campaigns simply cannot win if they are based largely on negative messages. Negative campaign messages have their place, but they cannot be the cornerstone of a winning campaign.

Liu Kuan-teh is a Taipei-based political commentator.
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