Two months ago, when Lee Ying-yuan (
Nevertheless, Lee's perceived advantage as an underdog looks weaker now, largely because his campaign strategy has lacked aggressiveness and failed to focus on key issues. Lee once characterized his race with Ma as a "gentlemen's competition." Let's face it, there is no way an election in Taiwan can be "gentle." And it is probably the gentleness of the early stages of his campaign that has dragged Lee even further behind the charming and good-looking Ma.
Lee's camp has used a strategy of "daily quizzes," questioning the city government over its handling of certain matters. They have criticized it for delaying the reconstruction of certain markets and historical buildings. They attacked Ma for his failure to strengthen anti-flood mechanisms. Ma's staff dealt easily with these questions, dispensing with the need for subsequent follow-up questioning from Lee's camp that might have generated further debate. Clearly, Ma's strategy was to play safe and avoid a face-to-face encounter with Lee.
Ma showed that the Lee camp had fired too many blanks at him. He appears to understand how to throw a counterpunch at his opponent because he knows where the attack is coming from and understands that the attack itself leaves the opponent vulnerable to counterattack. Let this be a warning for Lee.
A campaign is like riding a bike -- the more forward momentum you have, the harder it is to knock you over. But if you're barely moving, or trying to remain still, even the slightest push will make you tumble. Is negative campaigning a necessary evil? It is indeed. No matter how nasty it is, most voters love hard-hitting, above-the-belt, smacks in the mouth.
The media, moreover, relishes the opportunity to cover four particular aspects of politics -- scandals, gaffes, polls and attacks. So, if Lee wants to get himself on the front page, he'd better get on the offensive.
The most effective way to win is to be aggressive. In politics that translates into one word: attack. But sometimes it is possible to be both hard-hitting and to have a soft touch. It's not easy, but it is possible. The extent to which Lee can be aggressive without being unpleasant, therefore, is the key to the challenge that he faces. Lee must also change his campaign strategy from that of guerrilla warfare to a systemic and fully-fledged regular campaign.
The city government's poor handling of the crackdown on the sex industry and rampant corruption in policy-making have had a devastating effect on Ma. If it hadn't been for the media support Ma enjoys, those scandals would have been disastrous for him. The city's slow response to the flooding caused by Typhoon Nari last year also revealed flaws in its crisis management. Ma's team is unresponsive to public needs compared to that of his predecessor Chen Shui-bian
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These are the areas into which Lee should inject more energy. In any given context, being aggressive helps one to push the issues that reflect on oneself most favorably. Lee must find out what went wrong with the city government in the past three years and strike at it as though his life depended on it.
Liu Kuan-teh is a Taipei-based political commentator.
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