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Editorial: Not much has really changed

The uproar over President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) statement on Saturday shows no sign of abating anytime soon. While it is too early to get an accurate read on the reactions of the US and China, the domestic impact has surprised the opposition camp.

As much as China dislikes Chen's characterization of the status quo, his comments have not substantively changed anything. Unless Chen actually takes further steps, such as declaring the end of the "ROC on Taiwan" and the beginning of a "Republic of Taiwan," any reactions from China beyond the typical verbal assaults and military threats are simply posturing.

Chen does not appear to want to move further. In fact, yesterday he reportedly told DPP Legislator Trong Chai (蔡同榮) to take it easy when he met with the lawmaker, who wants to push for the passage of a public-referendum law. Both Chen and Mainland Affairs Council Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) have reiterated that there has been no change in the administration's cross-strait policy.

Under the circumstances, there is no legitimate reason for Beijing to go beyond what it has already said. Beijing in fact appears to be exercising considerable self-restraint, perhaps because it is pre-occupied with its upcoming transition of power. Or perhaps, Beijing has learned that too much foot-stomping, screaming and threats will only incite unity and patriotism among the people of Taiwan.

As for the US, its only reaction so far is that its policies toward both China and Taiwan remain unchanged. Why should it change when nothing else has?

The biggest losers in this affair appear to be the leaders of the opposition camp. The opposition initially reacted like a kid who has been handed a birthday present months early, and the parties were quick to lambast Chen. Much to their dismay, however, they have discovered that the public actually agrees with Chen's characterization of cross-strait relations. A DPP opinion poll found that as much as 64 percent of respondents agree with Chen's characterization, while 27 percent disagreed. Even opinion polls by the pro-China media show that a majority of the interviewees agree with Chen.

This has left KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) looking rather foolish. They can't really deny the veracity of Chen's characterization -- that there is "one state on either side of the Taiwan Strait." To do so would be to deny the very existence of the "ROC on Taiwan." So the opposition is left to nitpick and quibble over Chen's choice of words -- that he said "Taiwan" instead of the "ROC" and to huff and puff about the potential backlash from China. The name "ROC on Taiwan" has long been synonymous with "Taiwan" so there is not much to fuss over there, while their excessive concern about what China may think simply makes them look weak and cowardly instead of presidential.

Under the circumstances, its no wonder that Lien and Soong have belatedly shut their mouths. For the good of the country, they should keep their mouths shut until they have more constructive things to say.
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