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Ignoring China's threat very risky

In May, China announced a 17.6 percent increase in its national defense budget to US$20 billion. However, according to a report on China's military by the Penta-gon, the amount Beijing is actually spending on defense this year is closer to US$65 billion. Furthermore, the report indicates that by 2020, this amount could triple or even quadruple.

Throughout the 1990s, even according to government statistics, the percentage growth in China's defense budget was in double digits each year. Last year military spending rose 16.36 percent and the year before 12.65 percent. The Pentagon believes that the Chinese government conceals part of the budget, meaning the expansion in China's military over the past decade must have been quite impressive.

China's ability to spend so much on modernizing its military cannot be explained by two decades of economic development alone. When it began to reform its economy, China had little capital and had to rely of foreign money to develop the economy and build infrastruc-ture. Within 20 years, China has acquired sufficient capital to significantly enhance its military capability. Its ability to research and develop, as well as procure, advance weapons has grown especially quickly.

How did China come to be in this position? Simply put, the culprit is the so-called "market theory." International capital, including capital from Taiwan, has poured into China. As a result, foreign capital has not only helped China develop its economy, it has given it the resources it needs to expand its military, resulting in the threats it poses to increase dramatically.

During this period of expansion, some politicians, pro-unification media and pro-China businessmen loudly publicized variations of the market theory, saying that China is the hinterland of Taiwan. They say that Taiwan's economy must rely on China's and that Taiwan must pre-empt others in getting a piece of the market there. These individuals not only brag about China being a money-making heaven, but also criticize Taiwan by exaggerating crime and corruption here. At the same time, they describe China as a paradise and encourage Taiwanese to travel or even live in China. After the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the US, these individuals began to claim that China was the safest country in the world and the place with the least investment risk.

Since their "market theories" report only good news and no bad news about China, people have begun to believe them. More and more people began to blindly pour their money into China, causing Taiwan's industries, capital, technology and manpower to join the exodus to China.

Under the circumstances, the alarming China threat is not receiving the kind of attention it deserves. Those influenced by these "market theories" gradually lost the awareness that China is our enemy. Either intentionally or unintentionally, they also mistakenly believe in the so-called "Taiwan-is-hopeless theory, " believing that investing in China is the only way out.

In recent years, the opposition and ruling camps have competed in advocating opening up to China, giving some businessmen more reason to increase their investments there.

During a simulation exercise conducted by the Pentagon a few years ago, while the US was still trying to intervene in a Chinese attack on Taiwan, a collapse in confidence in Taiwan had brought the country to its knees.

The alarm the results of this kind of exercise should cause people in Taiwan was highlighted by President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) recent speeches abroad, in which he said was concerned about some people's lack of ability to distinguish between friends and enemies.

China is clearly applying a two-pronged strategy of "urging unification through peaceful means and coercing peace through the threat of war" (以和逼統,以戰逼和). Its plan is to engulf Taiwan. Facing the smoke screen created by the "market theories," many people in Taiwan have become blind to China's intention to take over Taiwan militarily.

It is good that the Pentagon's report on China's military now reminds everyone of the truth about the "China threat." Based on that, people can realize why China will never give up its right to use of force against Taiwan. Do those who only see China as a potential market really think Beijing will continue to lure Taiwanese businesspeople following unification? By then, Taiwan would probably be lucky if it is ruled under "one country, two systems."

If the opposition and ruling camps continue to ignore this wolf in sheep's clothing and encourage "direct links," by the time Taiwan's industry has been hollowed out, all talk about cross-strait economic integration and both sides unilaterally taking different stances would become the unrealistic dream of fools.

After the Pentagon report was released, reports began to appear in the international media on the threat China poses to regional peace. The people of Taiwan also closely watched the reaction of the ruling and opposition camps, hoping that they would know what to do.

But both camps seem unconcerned. Moreover, the Director-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics has indicated that, as a result of the government's financial difficulties, large increases in the defense budget are out of question.

China's national defense budget expands massively every year, creating a serious threat to Taiwan's security. But, because of its economic decline, Taipei can do nothing about the escalating Chinese threats. In the past, Taiwan had money but couldn't always buy the advanced weapons it wanted. Now it is cutting military spending, even for basic national defense. If Taiwan continues to open up to China, allowing the military strength of China to grow at its expense, China will inevitably gain military dominance in the Taiwan Strait.

Why is Taiwan's national defense facing these hidden problems? The reason is that the political thinking of both the ruling and opposition does not give priority to Taiwan's interests. They apply themselves to neither strengthening Taiwan's economy nor helping the forces that defend the country. Instead, they indirectly encourage investment in China, resulting in a serious economic downturn in Taiwan, increasing unemployment and falling tax revenue.

Under the circumstances, not only are the people growing increasingly numb to the concept of friends and foes, but Taiwan's plan to restructure its military is in jeopardy. It wasn't long ago when the government proposed the concept of offshore engagement for cross-strait conflict. Realizing this goal requires a strong military and financial security.

Now China has become increasingly capable of threatening Taiwan as a result of Taiwanese capital pouring into China. Under the pressure of Chinese military threats, the ruling and opposition camps are still talking about active opening, cross-strait direct links and direct investment in China. Aren't they afraid of becoming accomplices to China's attempts to threaten Taiwan?
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