This may in turn allow the other side of the Taiwan Strait to accomplish unification through legal means. Based on the above reasons, the US' Taiwan policy must take a potential economic crisis in Taiwan into consideration. So far, the US has successfully reached most of its goals in assisting Taiwan's military transformation. But helping Taiwan walk out of the shadow of China's unification propaganda via economic means is much more complicated.
As the US is a democratic country in which respect for the popular will far outweigh all else, it has repeatedly promised that any change in Taiwan's political status must be conditioned on the consent of Taiwanese people. For the same reason, any measures taken in response to Taiwan's economic pressure must also take into consideration the viewpoints of Taiwanese people.
Unfortunately, the viewpoints of the people in Taiwan may not be in unison. After all, while Taiwan will enjoy many political advantages from the signing and coming into force of a FTA with the US and Taiwan, it must at the same time make substantial economic concessions. This may in turn compromise some people's interests and trigger opposition, or even create a backlash from pro-China lawmakers. These are issues that the US and Taiwan government must evaluate very carefully.
Of course, once the FTA is signed, first and foremost, the agricultural industry of Taiwan will be devastated.
According US estimates, after the agreement comes into force, revenues from the exportation of US agricultural products to Taiwan will increase by US$500 million each year. After Taiwan's WTO entry, its agricultural sector is already facing a dire predicament.
Once the US also begins unlimited and unrestricted exports into Taiwan, Taiwan's agricultural sector will surely collapse altogether.
In a recent interview in the Japanese media, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) indicated that he hoped to push for the signing of a FTA with the US as soon as possible. He knows only too well that such an agreement will not only hold economic significance, but, even more importantly, political significance.
On the one hand, it would make the political and economic relationship between Taipei and Washington increasingly close. On the other hand, it would make the US' economic involvement in Taiwan increasingly extensive, giving Beijing's leaders even more reason to think twice before engaging in a military invasion against Taiwan.
Finally, it would turn the eyes of Taiwanese businesspeople toward the other side of the Pacific for a change. So long as that market is greater than the the China-bound market, and the former's profitability outweighs the latter, the suction force from across the Strait will lessen.
It seems that it is only a matter of time before this mutually-advantageous agreement for both Taiwan and US becomes a reality. Are leaders of Taiwan fully prepared for the challenges and clashes that would accompany such an agreement?
This is key to the future success of the agreement.
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