A free-trade agreement (FTA) between the US and Taiwan has become an important discussion topic in Washington recently. US Senator Max Baucus submitted a congressional bill authorizing the US government to engage in negotiation with Taipei on the matter. Taiwan's unofficial ambassador in the US, Chen Chien-jen (程建人), also attended a hearing on the issue held by the Federal Trade Commission on May 13.
The cold attitude that the US had previously exhibited toward signing such an agreement has apparently warmed up. Hints of this change are revealed in US public opinion. In addition to open support in a Wall Street Journal editorial, four major chambers of commerce in the Northwest region of the US also jointly stated that such an agreement would facilitate mutual interests of the US and Taiwan. The Heritage Foundation, which is commonly referred to as the think tank of Washington, released a research report recently, also stating that such an agreement would have not only economic value, but political value as well.
The report suggests a most obvious impact of the agreement would be preventing China from using force against Taiwan. This is because once US economic and trade interests become even more intertwined with Taiwan's, the US will have to increase military protection for Taiwan in order to protect is own interests.
Actually, US concerns do not end here. A column written by Nat Bellocchi that appeared in the Liberty Times on June 17 indicates that, among the US' contingent plans toward Taiwan, one ought to deal with an economic crisis in Taiwan. This means, in Bellocchi's own words, "economic pressure or `united front' activities by the PRC that jeopardize the economy and/or create domestic turmoil in Taiwan."
Bellocchi then went on to say that "pressures from the Taiwanese business community for more open trade and investment and the pressure generated by domestic politics are already evident."
What Bellochi is trying to argue is that if the pro-China businesspeople of Taiwan cannot come to the realization that China is trying to hollow out Taiwan's capital and talent through economic manipulation, Taiwan will surely face a severe economic crisis of large proportions.
This crisis would be even more unpredictable and dangerous than a military one.
Therefore, to keep its defense line in the West Pacific Ocean intact, the US has to take into consideration Taiwan's potential economic crisis, along with other political and military issues. Perhaps the signing of a FTA with Taiwan will help Taiwan leave behind the risk of an economic crisis generated by the force of suction from the black hole on the other side of the Taiwan Strait.
Bellocchi is also very concerned about the "China fever" of Taiwan's business sector. He believes that this wishful, unilateral fascination is based on a type of linear thinking that is far from accurate.
Once the economies of countries including the US and Japan improve, they will still be Taiwan's No. 1 customers. By then, business from these countries will pick up. If Taiwan becomes over-dependent on the Chinese market, Taiwan's political and economic status will necessarily come within China's grasp. Besides, China also now has enough influence and might manipulate the public opinion in Taiwan.
This, along with Taiwan's overdependence on the Chinese market, could very well make the pro-unification camp grow stronger.
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