China has severely criticized the US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and US efforts to construct a national missile defense (NMD) and theater missile defense system. From Beijing's perspective, the NMD system would neutralize China's limited nuclear capabilities and further weaken its strategic position. China is particularly appre-hensive about a joint US-Japan TMD in East Asia, because it seems likely that any such system would extend to Taiwan, and could thus offset the Chinese M-9 and M-11 missiles deployed against Taiwan and Japan.
The US is well aware of China's strategic interests, but has placed missile defense at the center of its strategy. The US Quadrennial Defense Review released last September addressed the rise of China's military threat, the cooperation with allies and friends (especially the littoral states between Japan and India) and put great importance on forward-deployed US forces in East Asia to deal with contingencies. Chinese leaders are troubled, because despite Beijing's objections, the US has not ruled out TMD in East Asia.
At many high-level meetings, the US has complained to Beijing leaders that China has violated its pledge not to assist in any way countries seeking to develop nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and that it has continued to supply missile technology to Iran and other "rogue states." For China to assist Iran, which Bush has labeled a member of the "axis of evil" and which is known to support terrorist groups and activities, repre-sents a direct challenge to Bush's policy priority.
Beijing has also sought to link US arms sales to Taiwan with its own weapons proliferation. Bush is known to strongly resent Bei-jing's approach and has told Jiang and Hu as much. Indeed, Beijing's ploy has became a bone of bitter contention in meetings between US and Chinese leaders.
Is a Sino-US conflict inevitable? Bush has repeatedly stated that he does not see China as an enemy and, indeed, that he wants to expand economic ties. However, some Chinese officials mistakenly believe that the US is losing economic, political and military influence around the world and that China is a rising economic and military power which has a right to expect its ambitions to be accommodated by the world.
These misguided officials propose a number of drastic foreign policy measures. One is to repudiate the missile technology control regime and end cooperation with the US on the non-proliferation of missiles and nuclear arms. Another is to form a global partnership with those countries (Russia, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Libya and Cuba) that are opposed to American interests or are potential strategic enemies, in order to defeat US efforts to contain China. If Beijing takes such action, sharp Sino-US confrontation will be inevitable.
Parris Chang is the president of the Taiwan Institute for Political, Economic and Strategic Studies and chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee of the Legislative Yuan.
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