Second, Beijing thinks Taiwan is a mirror image of China. The centrally-controlled media that exists in China has long since become history in Taiwan. Given its robust media and energetic legislature, no leader in Taiwan can defy the majority without losing power at the next election.
About 60 percent of Taiwanese prefer peace and prosperity by maintaining the status quo. Not talking to Taipei does not endear Beijing to the real master on Taiwan -- its people. Beijing's refusal to renounce the use of force against Taiwan is even more counterproductive. Beijing should try to win over the hearts and minds of Taiwanese people if it really wishes to pursue unification and confidently let the Taiwanese choose their own destiny.
Beijing seems to have gingerly learned this lesson in recent years, but how thoroughly remains to be seen. On March 15, 2000, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji (朱鎔基) appeared on TV. Broaching war and shaking his fist, he warned voters in Taiwan, "Do not indulge in impulse with consequences that you will live to regret." Three days later, Chen was elected president by a margin of just 2.4 percent of the votes. Beijing was low-key and passive for months afterwards.
At the APEC meeting in Shanghai last October, Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan (唐家旋) rudely prevented Taipei's representative from speaking. In the elections for Taiwan's legislature last December, Chen's minority party won a plurality.
On Jan. 24, Chinese Vice-Premier Qian Qichen (錢其琛) publicly welcomed "the broad membership of [the] DPP to visit the mainland." On May 9, Chen responded by announcing his plan to send DPP delegates in August, after he takes over the party's chairmanship. On May 22, his administration indicated that the civilian sector could participate in cross-strait negotiations on transportation links.
While the previously frozen atmosphere between Beijing and Taipei is loosening up, the People's Liberation Army continues to deploy short-range ballistic missiles -- with more than 400 already aimed across the Strait -- and to carry out military exercises aimed at seizing a modernized, subtropical and hilly island. Beijing still tries to block Taipei from participating in and contributing to international organizations such as the WHO.
Some have confidence in China's economic potential, and others think Taiwan's democracy will never perish. In the long run, however, time is not on the side of China or Taiwan. Time, rather, is on the side of people on both sides of the Strait. The interests of both people are basically the same. While governments may be temporary, people will be there forever.
Taipei and Beijing should strive toward a win-win relationship. Consultation is the key to peace and prosperity. If Jiang can speak about "creating a peaceful and prosperous new century" as he did in Berlin on April 19, why can't he do the same in Taipei?
Lin Chong-Pin is senior adviser at the National Security Council. This commentary was first published in the Asian Wall Street Journal (June 6th edition) under the title "Taiwan's Olive Branch."
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