Firstly, a presumption that the communist monopoly of power at home will remain constant throughout the foreseeable future is implicit in this view. A stable China, under communist rule, is therefore a prerequisite. In other words, the Communist Party and the nation are indistinguishable. To take this for granted, however, is clearly a tall order, given growing social and political tensions in the country.
Second, economic growth is very uneven, creating wide regional gaps (between coastal and interior areas), a growing urban-rural divide and serious income disparities. Unemployment is also a worry and is expected to get worse with the introduction of the WTO regime over the next five years. Corruption is rife, with the political elite involved at all levels.
Against this backdrop, it is a bit rich for the party to see the nation in its own image. And if it continues to do so, it will simply undermine China's future. There is an urgent need for the political system to open up to accommodate participatory democracy. But there is no sign of this happening and the Communist Party appears determined to monopolize power for now and forever.
All this is little consolation to Taiwan, however. Despite the US security umbrella, Taiwan remains vulnerable. With its increasingly fractious polity it is now, more than ever, susceptible to political manipulation by Beijing. It has already done its bit to exacerbate divisions in the KMT. With the net now cast wide, Beijing can afford to fish deeper in Taiwan's troubled political waters. At the same time, Taiwan's economy is not doing brilliantly. And to its commercial sector, economic integration with China appears to be the most sustainable answer.
China's cheap production costs lend a competitive edge internationally. Cultural homogeneity is an important advantage in inter-personal relations. China's domestic market and investment avenues seem limitless. And, on the surface at least, there is political stability and a compliant labor force under party control. No wonder Taiwan's companies are so enthusiastic about economic opportunities in China.
In such a political and economic climate, Beijing has some leeway to subvert Taiwan internally. This is neither imminent nor inevitable, but one cannot help noticing the opportunities for Beijing.
For that reason, the US commitment to defend Taiwan notwithstanding, Taipei must do a lot of homework to neutralize negative internal political and economic factors if it is to maintain its political identity.
Sushil Seth is a freelance writer based in Sydney, Australia.
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