Three decades ago, then US president Richard Nixon visited China and released the "Shanghai Communique" with then-premier Zhou Enlai (周恩來) -- ensuring that the US would acknowledge the Chinese authorities' stance that, "There is only one China and Taiwan is part of China."
Today, 30 years after Nixon's historic visit, US President George W. Bush will arrive in China. Taiwan's foreign ministry has scrambled to downplay the visit, saying that Bush will not make a surprise move during his trip and that Taiwan's interests will not be sacrificed in return for China's support for the US war on terrorism. The ministry's comments reveal the insecurity the people of Taiwan feel about cross-strait relations and their lack of self-confidence.
Given the international situation and China's internal politics, however, the ministry must maintain a sense of proportion.
First of all, Bush's first stop on his trip was Japan, where he met with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and strengthened the US-Japan alliance. By contrast, former president Bill Clinton stayed seven days in China during his Asia tours and didn't stop in Japan at all
The main purpose of Bush's tour is strategic. In his meetings in Beijing Bush will aim to contain China's military expansion. In October the Chinese Communist Party will hold its 16th national congress, which will be key to a smooth handover to President Jiang Zemin's (江澤民) hand-picked successor, Hu Jintao (胡錦濤). At such a crucial time for Beijing, its leadership is less willing than ever to use the Taiwan issue to challenge Sino-US relations, which are just beginning to thaw.
Also, in his speech marking the last month's anniversary of Jiang's "Eight Points," Vice Premier Qian Qichen (錢其琛) gave a positive response to the reopening of cross-strait communication channels. Under these circumstances, Taiwan is not likely to become the main focus of discussion at the Bush-Jiang meeting, even though both sides will follow precedent and reiterate their positions on Taiwan. Nor is any side likely to deliberately start a dispute on the Taiwan issue.
Even though Bush is not likely to "sell out Taiwan," we cannot overlook Taiwan's own strength and strategic status. In international politics, Taiwan shouldn't be a playing card in somebody else's hand. The people of Tai-wan, moreover, cannot keep consoling themselves with the belief that "the US won't sacrifice Taiwan's interests."
In fact, Taiwan's numerous political and economic achievements are our strongest bargaining chips. Economically, the wealth and prosperity brought by Taiwan's free economic system is precisely the direction that China's economic development is following. Along with the opening up and liberalization of China's market, the newly arising middle class will begin to seek political participation. When that happens, the conservative political stance of the Beijing authorities will face a serious challenge. China's economy and politics will also begin to move toward democracy and freedom. Only then can a constructive and cooperative relationship develop between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.
The US will not easily renounce the option of intervention in Taiwan for strategic and security reasons. Neither is Beijing in a hurry to press for more concessions from the US. For Taiwan, national security built on the basis of the threat of interference from other countries is naturally fragile. The people of Taiwan should have more faith in their country. When Taiwan's democracy earns it more respect from the international community, its national security will no longer be tied to the US. Beijing's military threats will also come under more international criticism.
Kang Ya-ya is a researcher at the Peacetime Foundation of Taiwan.
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