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Cabinet reshuffle requires strategy

After the excitement of last month's legislative elections, Taiwan is now gearing up for a Cabinet reshuffle. Speculation is rife in the newspapers that the reshuffle will affect everyone from the premier and vice premier to the heads of the "hot" ministries.

The replacements may be DPP county or city chiefs whose terms are expiring or who lost re-election bids. The incumbent ministers and vice ministers must be feeling quite uncomfortable. After all, no one can be sure what President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) has in mind for the Cabinet reshuffle, or who he considers potential candidates. Will there be a fresh, new lineup of Cabinet personnel? The reshuffle will influence Taiwan's development and is key to Chen's re-election bid.

The KMT and People First Party (PFP) have refused to join the "cross-party alliance for national stabilization" (國安聯盟) and the DPP did quite well in the legislative elections. So the probability that the Cabinet reshuffle will enhance "inter-party cooperation" -- or increase interaction between the ruling and opposition parties -- is low. To formulate a reasonable, appropriate new arrangement, Chen must carefully consider positioning and objectives.

Secretary-General to the Presidential Office Yu Shyi-kun recently related Chen's thoughts on the topic, saying, "In the future, even if some adjustments are made to Cabinet personnel, it won't be the result of poor policy administration or Cabinet members being uncooperative. Rather, [adjustments] will occur in response to changing times and shifting administrative priorities."

Chen appears to have already begun thinking strategically regarding the Cabinet reshuffle. His purpose is to forge a "strategic Cabinet" for the nation's future, that will enable him to realize the overall goals of his four-year term as president. The scope and direction of Cabinet personnel changes are reflections of this kind of strategic thinking.

First, Chen needs to establish what kind of Cabinet he needs. Will it be a multi-party "political Cabinet" that aims for smooth political administration? Or will it be a "financial and economic Cabinet" that puts all its weight behind economic development?

If it is the former, perhaps Premier Chang Chun-hsiung (張俊雄) or an opposition party leader should lead it. If it is the latter, Vice Premier Lai In-jaw (賴英照) -- who's performance has been outstanding -- should keep his present position and perhaps another key position. Furthermore, industrial leaders and academics should be appointed as heads of important financial agencies such as the Central Bank of China (中央銀行), the Ministry of Finance (財政部), the Ministry of Economic Affairs (經濟部), the Council for Economic Planning and Development (經建會), the Ministry of Transportation and Communications (交通部), the National Science Council (國科會) and the Council of Agriculture (農委會).

Second, the functions of the more "political" ministries need to be considered. What are the future goals of important agencies such as the Ministry of the Interior (內政部), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (外交部), the Ministry of National Defense (國防部) and the Mainland Affairs Council (陸委會)? Those in power should choose ministerial heads based on these goals.

Last, choosing Cabinet personnel requires understanding of candidates' talents. Having extensive professional experience and ability is standard for civil servants, but is often not necessary for ministers and vice ministers. Political appointees should possess skills such as versatility, leadership, political vision, management and the ability to handle crises. Only then will they be able to lead their ministries and create an outstanding administration characterized by quality and achievement.

The Cabinet reshuffle this time will coincide with a reshuffle of the top positions in the Examination Yuan (考試院).

There are also six Control Yuan (監察院) and grand justices vacancies that need filling. As a result, Chen has a fair number of bargaining chips and political space to work with as he arranges his new personnel scheme.

Chen can also encourage certain excellent, but not necessarily suitable, vice ministers and ministers to take up posts in the Examination Yuan or Control Yuan. This could reduce the resentment felt by these officials at being removed from their posts and give them an opportunity to make better use of their talents. Still, Chen must take care not to replace those in the Examination Yuan and other departments who are well-suited to their posts.

The Cabinet reshuffle is the most sensitive of political issues. Who will enter the new Cabinet? Who will leave politics for other professions -- or just sadly step down? Surprising changes may arise from Chen's strategic thinking.

Chen Sung-shan is a member of the Civil Service Protection and Training Commission under the Examination Yuan.

Translated by Scudder Smith
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