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Howard's election shows that the mood in Australia is changing

By Bruce Jacobs 家博

Saturday, Nov 17, 2001, Page 9

Just as Taiwan's voters are getting into campaign mode, the voters in one of this nation's most important regional neighbors, Australia, went to the polls to elect their federal government. On Nov. 10, Australians gave the conservative government of Prime Minister John Howard a third consecutive term in office. Three-term governments are rare in Australia, so this result deserves analysis, especially as it has regional implications.

Only a few months ago, the Howard government seemed doomed. In March 1996, when Howard first came to office, the conservative coalition formed by the Liberal and National parties controlled seven of the eight state and territory governments as well as the federal government. Since mid-1998, Labor governments have come to power in all but one state and territory and the Liberal government in that state too has looked extremely rocky with the recent resignation of its premier owing to a scandal.

How then did Howard win his third term victory last Saturday?

Two events turned the election around.

First, Howard refused to allow a Norwegian freighter, which had picked up "boat people" in a sinking vessel, to land in Australia. He arranged with Pacific Island neighbors to process the refugee applications of other "boat people" in those small countries at Australian expense. This meant the asylum seekers could not reach Australian territory.

Second, the terrorist attack of Sept. 11 in the US gave Australia the opportunity to join with the US in fighting terrorism. Australia is one of the few allies to have actually sent troops and ships to the area near Afghanistan.

The experience of political history tells us that war and crisis is good for incumbent governments as voters tend to stick with the leaders they know and avoid risk.

In 1998, Hollywood produced a well-known political satire, which drew upon this phenomenon. Involved in a scandal just before election day, the US president (Robert De Niro) manufactures a war with the assistance of a Hollywood producer (Dustin Hoffman). Of course, the president wins re-election.

In the parliamentary system, the prime minister determines when to call the election and Howard called the election just as the issues of "border protection" and the "war against terrorism" dominated the news. In his campaign, he emphasized "leadership". The Labor Party's attempts to shift the campaign focus to the domestic issues of jobs, education, health and aged care could not get sufficient media attention. Thus, Howard was able to win re-election despite his losing the single televised debate, his obvious lack of a program for his third term, his funding of rich private schools when state universities and schools were being starved of government support, and the bungling of his greatest "achievement," the implementation of a Goods and Services Tax, which angered his core support.

Perhaps most disconcertingly, according to many senior Liberals and others, the Howard campaign was implicitly racist in its anti-refugee rhetoric. More than one commentator analyzed the very low vote for Pauline Hanson's overtly racist One Nation Party by explaining that Howard had taken over her program.

Sadly, Labor leader Kim Beazley, fearing the loss of votes among blue-collar workers, basically supported Howard on the issues of "border protection" and the war on terrorism. The Greens, who questioned these attitudes, doubled their votes, but still remain a small minority with only 5 to 10 percent of the vote.

Many Asian-Australians tell me that they have never experienced racism in Australia. In 19th century Australia, Asians were forbidden to immigrate, but many Chinese who were already in Australia attained very high social status, something which was not possible in the US. And, especially with the Olympics last year, there was a strong popular movement in Australia towards "reconciliation" with our aboriginal population despite Howard's unwillingness to say "sorry" to the "stolen generation" of aborigines who were forcefully removed from their families by government policy until only a few decades ago. While I have applauded my country's achievements in overcoming racism, I fear that we may now start to go "backwards" in this regard.

Since the Howard government came to office in 1996, Australia has disengaged from its active pursuit of regional relations and a leading role in the Asia-Pacific region. We now seem to be "turning inwards" even further and starting to fear "the Other." My country appears to be turning its back on its closest neighbors and losing the understanding and sympathy which is so vital for peace and friendship in our region.

Bruce Jacobs (家博) is professor of Asian Languages and Studies at Monash University in Melbourne.
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